In line moves we have Friday basketball action, a look ahead at a couple key college hoops games and updates on all the weekend football action. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (452-364-12 in 2018) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week.
NBA – (503) INDIANA at (504) ORLANDO 7:05 ET FSIN, FSFL
Since losing Victor Oladipo to a wrist injury, the Indiana Pacers have experienced mixed results without their leading scorer at 4-4 and 2-6 ATS. With this, Indiana has been moved from a Pick to +2 at Orlando. But before you get all excited about the Magic, they have lost seven straight to Indiana (1-6 ATS) and 13 of 14 SU and ATS. That would include a 0-7 SU and ATS mark where Mickey and Minnie live half the year. Orlando has to win eventually, but with those numbers and catching points, I’m good with the Pacers.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Orlando
Doug’s VPID Take – Indiana covers
CBB – (529) ARIZONA STATE vs. (530) NEVADA 11:59 ET ESPN2
There is something called the Hall of Fame Classic, where there will be three games played at the Staples Center and this is the last and best contest of the three. Hoops bettors are invested in the total, lifting it from 158 to 161. Both these undefeated teams average more than 86 PPG, yet they allow under 71 points. This will be the best offense each team has faced, with several players who can shoot and having diversified games. The numbers don’t suggest which way to go, thus I’ll believe in both offenses and side with the OVER.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
CFB – Saturday – (103) NAVY vs. (104) ARMY 3:00 ET CBS
In spite of these military schools both being in the Top 3 in rushing again, neither offense is really potent. Army does a better job 30.8 PPG, but Navy is at only 26.2 PPG. With the Black Knights having an excellent defense and holding opposing teams to just 18.7 PPG, the total has sunk from 42.5 to 39.5. That is the lowest in total in 24 years. Update – The total is up slightly to 40. Navy’s biggest defensive weakness is against the pass, which will not be a problem. This really does look a 21-14 or 21-17 game, making me side with the UNDER.
Betting Trend – Was, 51% backing Under, now 43%
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
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CBB – Saturday – (735) XAVIER at (736) CINCINNATI 2:00 ET ESPN2
The “Crosstown Shootout” is annually one of the fiercest and most physical games of the season, period. Cincinnati is the home team and appears to have the stronger squad. That is definitely true on the defensive end and they are close to equal on offense. Even though the number is fairly large, the home team is 8-1 ATS and the favorite 8-2 ATS. Back the Bearcats.
Anticipated Line – Cincinnati by 8 to 10 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Cincinnati covers (at these numbers)
CBB – Saturday – (787) CREIGHTON at (788) NEBRASKA 6:00 ET BTN
Nebraska continues to get better each year and they are a fantastic 20-7 ATS against teams with a winning record and 18-7-1 ATS at home. However, Creighton has given them loads of trouble, winning the last six straight and owning a 10-1 ATS mark over the Cornhuskers, including a 5-0 ATS record in Lincoln. If this spread is correct, the Blue Jays deserve a look.
Anticipated Line – Nebraska by 6 to 8 points
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Creighton
NFL – (105) BALTIMORE at (106) KANSAS CITY 1:00 ET CBS *New*
Not one bit surprised to see this total chopped from 53.5 to 51. Not sure if it will be Lamar Jackson or Joe Flacco under center, but with how Baltimore has been running the ball at 238 YPG in last three outings and Kansas City 22nd in run defense and 31st in yards per carry allowed, this could speed up the game. The other factor is the Ravens No.1 overall defense. Baltimore is 9-2 UNDER off a road game and the Chiefs are 6-0 UNDER at home after scoring 25 points or more in three straight times.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
NFL – (113) NEW ORLEANS at (114) TAMPA BAY 1:00 ET FOX
Did last week’s performance at Dallas make football bettors skittish about New Orleans? And is that the reason the total slipped two points to 55.5? Actually, probably not, as the Saints have only conceded 51 points in their past four games and Tampa Bay has held three of their last four opponents to 17 or less points. This bears watching. Update – The total has dropped another digit to 54.5, but I’m going the other way, thinking New Orleans wants to make amends for last week and the Bucs 7-1 OVER as underdogs
Betting Trend – Was 60% backing Over, now 71%
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
NFL – (119) L.A. RAMS at (120) CHICAGO 8:20 ET NBC
The Rams have the No.2 scoring offense in the NFL and Chicago is 5th, so how can the total have slid from 54 to 51.5? The continued uncertainty about Mitchell Trubisky is playing a part, as is temps expected to be in the upper 20’s at this time. This is L.A.’s one and only cold weather game of the season. Food for thought, the Bears are 6-0 OVER versus teams averaging 5.65 or more yards a play this season. Update – No movement on the total, even though Trubisky has been elevated to ‘probable’. I’ll the weather makes just enough difference and take the UNDER, barely!
Betting Trend – Was 88% backing Under, now 72%
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFL – (123) DENVER at (124) SAN FRANCISCO 4:05 ET CBS
In this nonconference clash, the total has jumped from 41.5 to 45. In attempting to understand why we find Denver has played five straight UNDER’s and is 9-3 UNDER on the year. If you dismiss the outlier 34 points San Francisco scored in ousting Oakland, in the 49ers other five most recent contests they have averaged 14.6 PPG. The Niners permitting 32.3 PPG in their last three outings plays into the equation, but the Broncos are 6-0 UNDER versus teams who give up 27 or more points a game. Are Joe Montana and John Elway coming back? Update – A modest buyback on the total to 44.5. As you can probably have guessed having read this I will side with the UNDER.
Betting Trend – Was 85% backing Over, now 63%
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
NFL – (127) DETROIT at (128) ARIZONA 4:25 ET FOX
Detroit is 1-5 SU and ATS in their most recent games, but they have been elevated from -1.5 to -3 point favorites at Arizona. The Cardinals are off hard to imagine upset of Green Bay but did lose two starters in that contest and are still lowest scoring team in the league at 14.6 PPG. However, ask yourself, does backing a team like the Lions sound good knowing they are 11-27 ATS as road faves since 1992? Update – Bettors are pleased with Detroit at -3 and so am I with the Lions on a 0-8 SU and ATS run in the land of cactus.
Betting Trend – Was 68% backing Detroit, now 61%
Doug’s VPID Take – Arizona covers
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (19-19-1 ATS) in order: Chargers, Saints and Chiefs
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (18-19-2) in order: Panthers/Browns OVER, Falcons/Packers OVER and Lions/Cardinals OVER
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 257-256-14 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 113-98-2 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 378-374-16 ATS