Free Picks and Predictions on Line Moves for Dec.5th

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Today in line moves, we have a couple of free picks in basketball, plus, a look ahead at this weekend’s football action. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (448-362-12 in 2018) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.

NBA – (517) L.A. CLIPPERS at (518) MEMPHIS 8:05 ET  PRIME, FSSE

The Clippers continue to play excellent basketball and lead the Pacific Division. The Clips were sent out as a Pick at Memphis but as the day wore on they are now +2 despite the fact the Grizzlies are on 1-4 SU and ATS downer. L.A./2 is 7-6 SU and ATS on the road while Memphis is 7-3 SU and ATS at home and 3-0 ATS after shooting under 43 percent. The Grizz are 3rd in points allowed, however, the Clips are 3rd in field goal percentage defense, which is an edge for L.A. Plus, the Clippers are 8-1 ATS versus teams attempting 24 or fewer free throws a game this season.

Betting Trend – 51% backing Memphis

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Los Angeles

CBB – (599) IDAHO at (600) WASHINGTON ST.  9:00 ET  PAC-12N

With Idaho 3-4 and having played mostly very lame competition, bettors have not had any problem backing Washington State at home and pushed them from -7 to -10. These two schools are state neighbors and only separated by nine miles and have met annually on the hardwood for years. The Vandals have won and covered three of the last four and the SU winner is 11-0 and 10-0-1 ATS. With this in mind and the Cougars 10-1 and 8-3 ATS on their home floor, we will back them.

Betting Trend – 88% backing Washington State

Doug’s VPID Take – Washington State covers

CFB – (103) NAVY vs. (104) ARMY  3:00 ET  CBS 

In spite of these military schools both being in the Top 3 in rushing again, neither offense is really potent. Army does a better job 30.8 PPG, but Navy is at only 26.2 PPG. With the Black Knights having an excellent defense and holding opposing teams to just 18.7 PPG, the total has sunk from 42.5 to 39.5. That is the lowest in total in 24 years.

Betting Trend – 51% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

NFL – (113) NEW ORLEANS at (114) TAMPA BAY  1:00 ET  FOX

Did last week’s performance at Dallas make football bettors skittish about New Orleans? And is that the reason the total slipped two points to 55.5? Actually, probably not, as the Saints have only conceded 51 points in their past four games and Tampa Bay has held three of their last four opponents to 17 or less points. This bears watching.

Betting Trend – 60% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

NFL – (119) L.A. RAMS at (120) CHICAGO 8:20 ET  NBC

The Rams have the No.2 scoring offense in the NFL and Chicago is 5th, so how can the total have slid from 54 to 51.5? The continued uncertainty about Mitchell Trubisky is playing a part, as is temps expected to be in the upper 20’s at this time. This is L.A.’s one and only cold weather game of the season. Food for thought, the Bears are 6-0 OVER versus teams averaging 5.65 or more yards a play this season.

Betting Trend – 88% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

NFL – (123) DENVER at (124) SAN FRANCISCO  4:05 ET  CBS

In this nonconference clash, the total has jumped from 41.5 to 45. In attempting to understand why we find Denver has played five straight UNDER’s and is 9-3 UNDER on the year. If you dismiss the outlier 34 points San Francisco scored in ousting Oakland, in the 49ers other five most recent contests they have averaged 14.6 PPG. The Niners permitting 32.3 PPG in their last three outings plays into the equation, but the Broncos are 6-0 UNDER versus teams who give up 27 or more points a game. Are Joe Montana and John Elway coming back?

Betting Trend – 85% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

NFL – (127) DETROIT at (128) ARIZONA  4:25 ET  FOX

Detroit is 1-5 SU and ATS in their most recent games, but they have been elevated from -1.5 to -3 point favorites at Arizona. The Cardinals are off hard to imagine upset of Green Bay but did lose two starters in that contest and are still the lowest scoring team in the league at 14.6 PPG. However, ask yourself, does backing a team like the Lions sound good knowing they are 11-27 ATS as road faves since 1992?

Betting Trend – 68% backing Detroit

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 254-255-14 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 112-97-2 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 372-373-16 ATS

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