Free Picks and Predictions on Line Moves for Dec. 21-24

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Let’s start off with Merry Christmas! For line moves, we are going football only now thru Christmas Eve. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (467-378-13 in 2018) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week.

BOWLS – 12/21 – (219) BYU vs. (220) WESTERN MICH.  4:00 ET  ESPN

The total in the Potato Bowl has gone from 48 to 50. BYU’s quarterback change made the offense more productive and they averaged over 35 PPG in their last three outings compared to 23 PPG before that. Western Michigan scores and allows more than 33 PPG, thus, the switch makes sense. Update – The total has kept climbing, now up to 52. I will agree, believing BYU’s more potent offense will have success against a weak Broncos defense and Western Michigan will get their share of points to make this and OVER.

Betting Trend – Was 80% backing Over, now 68%

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

NFL – (123) BALTIMORE at (124) L.A. CHARGERS  8:20 ET  NFLN  *New*

Even though Keenan Allen and Melvin Gordon have been upgraded to ‘probable’, the total has fallen from 45 to 41. There is a strong belief that Baltimore’s team speed matches up well with the Chargers and they can scheme them and bring challenges. At the same time, Carson’s finest could well do things to limit Lamar Jackson and the Ravens running game. I think the real answer is now somewhere in between with Baltimore 17-8 OVER as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points.

Betting Trend – 52% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

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BOWLS – 12/22 – (223) HOUSTON vs. (224) ARMY  3:30 ET  ESPN

Sharp football bettors thought oddsmakers made an egregious error on the total of the Armed Forces Bowl and dropped it from 67.5 all the way down to 59.5. Since Tuesday, the number has come up a little to 60.5. Because of Houston’s quick-strike ability and just pathetic tackling defense, the oddsmakers made a higher total. Bettors are looking at Army’s No.1 time of possession offense and them permitting only 18 PPG and thought differently. Update – This total got stuck on 60 Thursday afternoon and has not budged. I’m going to lean with the OVER, thinking there will be big plays because of Houston’s outside speed and because Army’s offense will wear out the Cougars defense and also make big plays.

Betting Trend – Was 83% backing Under, now 79%

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

BOWLS – 12/22 – (225) BUFFALO vs. (226) TROY  7:00 ET  ESPN (side and total)

The Dollar General Bowl has seen a discount in the total, having slid from 53 to 49 points. Troy only scored 22 points in their last two contests and they permitted just 21.2 PPG all season. Buffalo has a good looking offense, however, the last half of the season the defense was literally hit or miss. Does Troy at 7-0 OVER as a bowl team matter? Update – Bettors agree the total of 49 is correct and it has not moved. What has moved is that Buffalo is down from -3 to -1. Most bettors I know are on Troy, but this Bulls offense is legit and I’ll call for them to win 30-24, which puts me on Buffalo and OVER.

Betting Trend – Was 62% backing Over, now 70% and 60% on Troy

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over, lean Buffalo

BOWLS – 12/22 – (227) LOUISIANA TECH at (228) HAWAI’I 10:30 ET  ESPN

The Hawai’i Bowl is being counted on to deliver more points, as the total climbed from 57 to 61. Louisiana Tech only scored 24.2 PPG on the season, but they will be facing a Rainbow Warriors defense which was lit up for 42.1 PPG over their last half dozen starts. The Bulldogs did close the season on an 8-1 UNDER run. Update – Too much offense from Hawai’i and Louisiana Tech can and will score on the Rainbow Warriors. Betting the OVER.

Betting Trend – Was 96% backing Over, now 98%

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

NFL – (101) TAMPA BAY at (102) DALLAS  1:00 ET  FOX

I know Dallas was shutout last week and they want to make amends and come out firing, but Tampa Bay’s defense has played better since changing defensive coordinator’s. That makes for a very interesting call on the total rising from 46 to 47.5. Update – The total has risen again, now at 48. The average total score of the Buccaneers last four contests is 37.7. For the season the average score of a Dallas game is 38.9 PPG. This seems like a big number to reach and will play UNDER.

Betting Trend – Was 67% backing Over, now 57%

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

NFL – (113) HOUSTON at (114) PHILADELPHIA  1:00 ET  CBS

Houston has been flipped from -1.5 to a +1.5 point underdog at Philadelphia. The Eagles unbelievable upset at the Rams has made for extra seats needed on the Philly bandwagon this week. Besides, the Texans have not played that well since beating Tennessee on Monday night three games ago. Just asking, wasn’t Philadelphia more attractive an underdog in this contest rather than a favorite? Update – Both teams have a lot to play for, but the big plays that Houston can generate against a beleaguered Eagles secondary will be the difference.

Betting Trend – Was 60% backing Philadelphia, now 55%

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Houston

NFL – (119) CINCINNATI at (120) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET  CBS (side and total)

With a victory over Cincinnati, Cleveland will be playing to finish above .500 for the first time since 2007. Yet, from a betting perspective, it is scary as hell to see the Browns go from -7 to -9 against the Bengals. Why? This is the first time Cleveland has been more than a 3.5-point favorite in 71 games and now you would have to cough up more than a touchdown! Think of that and the total sliding from 46 to 44.5. Do that math on the side and total and get back to me. Update – No changes on the side, but the total has slipped to 44. I know the Browns are better this season, but this is too big a number in my opinion to cover. Particularly so with a declining total I also think will prove incorrect. Make it Cleveland 27-20.

Betting Trend – Was 81% backing Cleveland and 67% on Under, now 78% and 69% respectively

Doug’s VPID Take – Cincinnati covers and Over

NFL – (121) L.A. RAMS at (122) ARIZONA 4:05 ET  FOX

Arizona has the worst NFL offense at 13.7 PPG and the Jared Goff the last couple of weeks is playing as he did for Jeff Fisher. In turn, the total has fallen from 47.5 to 44. It is a given the Cardinals will score 13 to 16 points, but how many will the Rams end up at? Update – The total is unchanged and news has come out that Todd Gurley has knee inflammation and is iffy for Sunday. Back the UNDER if Gurley ends up not playing.

Betting Trend – Was 88% backing Under, now 84%

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

NFL – 12/24 – (131) DENVER at (132) OAKLAND  8:15 ET  ESPN  *New*

These teams have played four straight Under’s and there is little reason to think that will change seeing both offenses average less than 22 PPG. With this, the total has dipped two points to 43. Denver is 11-3 UNDER, including racking up seven in a row. In addition, home teams like Oakland, when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, after one or more losses, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season, are 25-5 UNDER.

Betting Trend – 75% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (20-24-1 ATS) in order: Colts, Bears and Cowboys

Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (21-22-2) in order: Rams/Cardinals UNDER, Broncos/Raiders UNDER and Packers/Jets OVER

 

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 270-272-15 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 114-98-2 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 391-391-17 ATS

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