Free Picks and Predictions on Line Moves for Dec. 13th

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On Thursday for line moves, let’s dig into tonight’s big AFC West affair, the NBA, NHL and preview the line adjustments for Week 15. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (458-370-13 in 2018) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.

NFL – (301) LA. CHARGERS at (302) KANSAS CITY  8:20 ET  FOX 

In the final Thursday night game of the season, we have a sliding total, down two points to 54.5. That is a really intriguing development since the betting public is on the Over and most sharp bettors and handicappers are 50-50 on the total. I’m going to be in the camp of the OVER, as both defenses have shown signs of weakness in their last three games and both offenses have more than enough ways to take advantage of the situations.

Betting Trend – 79% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

NBA – (561) L.A. CLIPPERS at (562) SAN ANTONIO 8:35 ET  PRIME, FSSW

With the San Antonio defense off two sparkling performances and the Clippers failing to break triple digits in three of their past four contests, the total has plummeted from 225 to 222. If you follow the Spurs, they are quite consistent in scoring 110 PPG. Another consistent aspect has been the Clippers are 11-2 OVER after allowing 115 points or more this season, with an average of 230 total points scored.

Betting Trend – 51% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

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NHL – (77) CAROLINA at (78) MONTREAL 7:35 ET  FSCR, TSN2

Somebody knows something in moving the total from 5.5 to 6. Carolina is 20-9 UNDER on the season and 10-4 UNDER on the road. Montreal is more balanced at 16-14 OVER but is 7-1 UNDER at home having won three of their last four games. I’ll stick with the lower score, using those figures and the Hurricanes at 12-3 UNDER after one or more losses.

Betting Trend – 67% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

NFL – (315) DETROIT at (316) BUFFALO  1:00 ET  FOX (side and total)

The Buffalo Bills have lost very winnable games in the last two they have played, yet they are still drawing support against Detroit. This nonconference clash opened as a Pick and the Bills are now up to -2.5. If Matthew Stafford was playing anywhere near his ability, this would an easy choice on the Lions, but he’s not. The total has also climbed from 38 to 40, with Buffalo 10-0 OVER at home off one or more Over’s since 2016.

Betting Trend – 57% backing Buffalo and 81% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

NFL – (317) GREEN BAY at (318) CHICAGO 1:00 ET  FOX

With Green Bay averaging barely over 20 PPG on the road and Chicago permitting only 19 PPG anywhere they play, the total in this NFC Norris Division rivalry (Chris Berman reference) has fallen like the temps in the Windy City from 46.5 to 44.5. That might seem correct, yet you have to consider the Packers are 18-6 OVER in road games the last three seasons.

Betting Trend – 52% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

NFL – (327) NEW ENGLAND at (328) PITTSBURGH  4:25 ET  CBS

Even with the news Ben Roethlisberger is a “Go” for Sunday, the slumping Steelers have been taken from +1 to +2.5 versus their nemesis New England. Of course, with the Patriots having won the last five battles and posting a 4-0-1 ATS mark has something to do with it. With Pittsburgh having the Pats this week and at New Orleans, losing their last three games, all which they should have won, places them in peril Sunday.

Betting Trend – 77% backing New England

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

NFL – Monday(331) NEW ORLEANS at (332) CAROLINA  8:15 ET  ESPN

If you look at the broader picture of this NFC South showdown, the total crumbling like a Christmas cookie from 54 to 51 does not make sense. But in the NFL, results often reflect recent events, not how a team plays all year. In these team’s last three outings, New Orleans average total score is 37.7 PPG and Carolina is at 48 PPG. Now that makes more sense.

Betting Trend – 84% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 261-262-15 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 113-98-2 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 383-379-17 ATS

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