With the line moves today, adding our first taste of NFL preseason football which commences on Thursday. We still have a pair of baseball line moves for Wednesday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (283-219-4 run, 91-62-2 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Friday.
MLB – (959) ST. LOUIS at (960) MIAMI 7:10 ET FSMW, FSFL
In this NL contest, it is the deciding game of the series and St. Louis is falling as fast as New York state representative Chris Collins (don’t know? Google it), down from -140 to -115 in South Florida. The Cards John Gant (3-4, 4.12 ERA) is 4-9 with a 4.48 ERA over his three major-league seasons and in the second half of any season, Gant is 0-4 with a 5.44 ERA. Rookie Trevor Richards (3-6, 3.92) spent this past offseason as a substitute teacher, but over his past four starts — encompassing 23 2/3 innings — Richards has posted a brilliant 0.76 ERA. Truthfully, I’d like to choose the Marlins as a live underdog, but the Redbirds are 9-0 after scoring three runs or less in three straight games this season.
Betting Trend – 66% backing St. Louis
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean St. Louis
MLB – (961) SAN DIEGO at (962) MILWAUKEE 8:10 ET FSSD, FSWI
One night after 16 runs were scored between these teams, the total has gone south from 9 to 8.5. Jhoulys Chacin (10-4, 3.89) will toe the rubber for the Brew Crew and he has an ERA just over three lifetime against San Diego. The Padres called up Brett Kennedy from Triple-A, where he was 10-0 with a 2.72 ERA. However, Friars offense has produced 35 runs in their past five contests and they are 11-3 OVER after two or more wins. This might be a low scoring affair, but I’ll go against the grain.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
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NFLX – Thursday – (251) CAROLINA at (252) BUFFALO 7:00 ET
I am the first to admit, this is a tough week to pick football games. Bettors are counting on Buffalo’s young trio of quarterbacks having something to prove against Carolina, who has a more veteran squad and who just wants to grade players This would be my assumption why the Bills went from -1 to -2.5. Not much to look at here, but my Game Estimator has the Panthers winning and they are 8-3 ATS on the road in August. In addition, the underdog in this matchup is 5-1 ATS.
Betting Trend – 63% backing Carolina
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Carolina
NFLX – Thursday – (257) CLEVELAND at (258) N.Y. GIANTS 7:00 ET NFLN
After a 0-16 season, which was preceded by a 1-15 campaign, there is a belief Cleveland is desperate for a victory, any victory. The Browns opened as a standard three-point road dog and have been flipped to -1. New York doesn’t have much to play for, but new head coaches like Pat Shumur win more often than they don’t this time of year. Seeing both teams want to run the ball more this upcoming season, I actually prefer the Under, but my Game Estimator has Cleveland, thus, I’ll lean in that direction.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Cleveland
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cleveland
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 142-148-7 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 58-55-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 189-198-6 ATS