For line moves, let’s dial up the action with a big wad of baseball action. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (280-217-4 run, 88-60-2 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (909) PITTSBURGH at (910) COLORADO 8:40 ET ATT-P, ATT-RM (side and total)
Chad Bettis (5-1, 5.10 ERA) comes off the DL for Colorado, but what pitcher will baseball bettors see? Will it be the one that had a had a 2.05 in his first seven starts or the one with a 7.71 ERA in 10 subsequent starts? Somebody is counting on the former, as the Rockies has been shifted from +110 to -105 or slighting higher favorites. He will face Jameson Taillon (8-8, 3.74), who has gone 4-1 with a 2.37 ERA in his past six road starts. I will side with the Rocks who are 11-3 after batting .200 or worse over a 3-game span. (They are also 8-0 UNDER of late when this happens.) The total was also on the move from 10.5 to 11, but as just stated about Colorado, Pittsburgh is 8-0 UNDER in road games after two straight losses by two runs or less.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Colorado and 56% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Colorado, Play Under
MLB – (913) BOSTON at (914) TORONTO 7:07 ET NESN, SNET
Boston just swept the Yankees in four games, they have the best record in baseball by eight games, yet at this moment they are a falling road favorite to Toronto. The Red Sox have slid from -125 to -105 and the culprit has to be Drew Pomeranz (1-5, 6.56), who is trying to hang on to his starting job. Besides, it’s not like Boston cannot get to Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman (4-8, 5.63) and the Jays bullpen ERA is more than a run higher than the BoSox. Can Toronto win, certainly. But at this price the Sawx make sense and the Jays are 14-26 versus LH starters.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Boston
Doug’s VPID Take – Boston wins
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MLB – (921) N.Y. YANKEES at (922) CHIC. WHITE SOX 8:10 ET YES, WGN
New York emphatically ended their five-game losing streak last night with a 7-0 white-washing of the White Sox. Those betting are calling for another lower scoring affair and dropped the total from 9.5 to 9. With CC Sabathia (6-4, 3.59) taking the pill for the Yankees, every bettor needs to know the Pale Hose average 3.5 RPG vs. port-siders. Reynaldo Lopez (4-9, 4.40) will be the Sox starter. Though neither hurler has pitched particularly well of late, if Sabathia starts after a Yanks win, he is 10-2 UNDER.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (927) CHIC. CUBS at (928) KANSAS CITY 8:15 ET CSN-C, FSKC
While the Cubs still lead the NL in scoring at 5.0 RPG, the bats have been inconsistent since the All-Star break. It’s given Kansas City cannot score, with the worst offense in the majors at 3.7 RPG. With this, the total has dipped from 9.5 to 9 and a few sportsbooks are down to 8.5. Mike Montgomery (3-4, 3.90) is the Cubs starter and he’s likely to pitcher well against the Royals, the team that drafted him. Where it gets dicey is with Brad Keller (4-4, 3.39) and the K.C. pen. Keller has been like a ceramic knife, either sharp or useless and the Royals bullpen is 30th in ERA. I’ll ride the numbers with the Royals 9-1 UNDER against the NL this season and hope.
Betting Trend – 77% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 141-145-7 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 57-55-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 186-196-6 ATS