College football starts in earnest today and we have line moves on a couple games on the sides and totals. Plus, more baseball action where the numbers are on the move. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (307-231-5 long term, 116-79-3 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Friday.
MLB – (953) PITTSBURGH at (954) ST. LOUIS 7:15 ET ATTP, FSMW
Pittsburgh cooled off St. Louis at least for a day with a win last night and enough baseball bettors money has convinced sportsbooks to lower the Pirates from +125 to around +100. The Cardinals would seem to have the edge since John Gant (5-5, 3.56 ERA) and thrown better than the Bucs Joe Musgrove (5-7, 3.56) has of late, but the Pitt right-hander does have a 2.92 road ERA. For my money, there is a lot of value backing the Redbirds at this price since they are 20-6 this month and 17-4 after scoring and allowing three runs or less this season.
Betting Trend – 86% backing St. Louis
Doug’s VPID Take – St. Louis wins
MLB – (955) CHIC. CUBS at (956) ATLANTA 7:35 ET WGN, FSSO
This is a makeup game from an earlier rainout and this could also be a preview of a postseason matchup. Mike Montgomery (4-4, 3.62) comes off the DL to oppose Atlanta’s Mike Foltynewicz (10-8, 2.67). The Braves opened as -140 favorites and are now down to -125. These makeup games are tricky in trying to determine what team really wants to play and generally they favor the home team. I’ll stick with that because I’m not sure about Montgomery and Cubs bullpen has been more inconsistent of late.
Betting Trend – 73% backing Atlanta
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Atlanta
CFB – (137) NEW MEX. STATE at (138) MINNESOTA 7:00 ET BTN (side and total)
For football bettors that watched New Mexico State be shutout at home for almost 59 minutes Saturday, they couldn’t place their bets fast enough on Minnesota. The Golden Gophers climbed from -17.5 on the opening line all the way to -23 against the Aggies. New Mexico State will be better on offense even on a short week and I could see Minnesota winning by 20. But 23, that quite a few points, which leads me to side with the Aggies. The total is also up two digits to 47.5 and the visitor is 21-7 OVER as a road underdog.
Betting Trend – 73% backing Minnesota, 59% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean New Mexico State, Play Over
CFB – (139) WAKE FOREST at (140) TULANE 8:00 ET CBSSN (side and total)
It seems the market overreacted to Wake Forest not having regular starting QB Kendall Hinton, as the Demon Deacons slid from -8 to -6.5. That news also took the total with it, as that crumbled from 61 to 57.5. Wake has had plenty of time to prepare for the Green Wave and their option. They have stronger and better athletes and there is a reason why Tulane is 2-11 ATS against ACC opponents. I’ll agree with the lower total and say the Deacons win 31-21.
Betting Trend – 57% backing Wake Forest, 61% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Wake Forest covers and Under
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 159-165-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 63-58-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 239-233-9 ATS