Off yet another winning weekend, we are back at today with line moves in baseball! Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (301-222-5 long term, 109-70-3 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (961) ST. LOUIS at (962) L.A. DODGERS 10:10 ET ESPN
The St. Louis Cardinals have moved within four games the lead in the loss column of the NL Central by playing scalding hot baseball. A part of that reason is a young starting staff who is showing a bright future. That includes tonight’s starter Jack Flaherty (7-6, 3.05 ERA), who faces Walker Buehler (6-4, 3.19) for the Dodgers. The total has shrunk from 8 to 7.5 with Flaherty having a 0.95 ERA in his past three starts and Buehler at 1.42 over his last four outings. The two hurlers are 20-14 UNDER combined so let’s look that direction.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (973) CLEVELAND at (974) BOSTON 7:10 ET STO, NESN
Evidently, Boston is not as bulletproof as most thought, losers of three in a row for the first time since April and losing both games at home to Cleveland. With Carlos Carrasco (15-6, 3.33) taking the mound for the Indians, the Tribe opened as a -125 favorite but has slid to -110. Brian Johnson (4-3, 4.00) will be the Red Sox starter and he’s 3-0 this month. It is hard to conceive Boston would be swept at home even against a pitcher as tough as Carrasco because of their 71-27 record against RH starters and 44-18 mark at Fenway.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Boston
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Boston
MLB – (975) N.Y. YANKEES at (976) MIAMI 7:10 ET YES, FSFL
After a hard fought extra innings win over Miami last night, the Yankees are hoping tonight will be simpler. That might not be the case as the total has dropped from 8 to 7.5. This seems almost hard to believe given how Lance Lynn (8-8, 4.68) has pitched most of the season. But in four games and three starts, Lynn has that Yankees magic going with a 2.61 ERA. Miami counters with Trevor Richards (3-7, 4.28), who has a 3.27 ERA in his home park. Let’s go UNDER, with Lynn 21-7 UNDER vs. teams outscored by 0.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season in his career the Yanks 9-0 UNDER on the interleague road this year.
Betting Trend – 90% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (977) CHIC. CUBS at (978) DETROIT 7:10 ET WGN, FSD
How could a team that has scored one run in each of its last five contests and starting their ace pitcher have the total lift from 9 to 9.5? Great question! Jon Lester (13-5, 3.72) had three poor starts but tossed six shutout innings in his last outing and faces a team averaging 3.9 RPG. Francisco Liriano (3-8, 4.72) is not the hurler he used to be, but he has a 3.35 ERA against the Cubs. No hero pick for me with Chicago 11-2 UNDER away after allowing four runs or less in five straight games and the Tigers are 16-5 UNDER versus a team with a bullpen ERA that is 3.45 or better this season.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 156-157-8 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 60-56-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 198-212-9 ATS