Let’s starts our coverage of line moves today with the full gamut of basketball and hockey playoffs and a couple of baseball battles. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks (5-1 this past weekend) and predictions to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (523) L.A. CLIPPERS at (524) GOLDEN STATE 10:30 ET TNT
In one way, the total climbing from 230.5 to 234.5 comes as a surprise as all Game 1’s were a perfect 8-0 UNDER. (some books took Jazz/Rockets to a 212 Push late) Golden State continues to score at will against the Clippers, but there are enough bettors are not sure the Warriors will be engaged defensively and pushed the total higher. The last game closed at 233 and with the Clips 11-3 UNDER in road games revenging a same season loss and 19-10 UNDER as a road underdog this year, I’ll take the lower score.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NHL – (33) NASHVILLE at (34) DALLAS 9:30 ET NBCSN
This Western Conference series was supposed to be low scoring and this will be the third straight total of 5, and thus far we are 1-0-1 in terms of predictive accuracy. That has changed the juice on the total, up from Un5 -110 to -125. In other words, you want the Under, you are going to have to dish out more to bet it. With the teams struggling mightily to even find scoring chances, let alone goals, we’ll side with the UNDER, with Dallas 9-1 UNDER after allowing two goals or less in three straight games this season.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
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MLB – (905) ST. LOUIS at (906) MILWAUKEE 7:40 ET FSMW, FSWI
The Brewers Freddy Peralta (1-0, 6.91 ERA) has been uneven to start the season and with the Cardinals averaging 5.9 RPG in their last seven contests, the total has jumped from 9 to 9.5. Milwaukee is back home after a 2-4 L.A. area road trip and that has to be a welcome sight for Brew Crew hitters, averaging 6.2 RPG at Miller Park. Going to support the big number with the Brewers 16-6 OVER at home after two or more Under’s and the Redbirds 30-13 OVER as a road underdog of +100 to +150.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (907) CINCINNATI at (908) L.A. DODGERS 10:10 ET FSOH, SNLA
Clayton Kershaw makes his season debut and baseball bettors are not crazy about it, at least from a wagering perspective. The Dodgers just ended a six-game losing streak yesterday and while Cincinnati is only 5-9 and averaging 3.7 RPG, their starter Luis Castillo (1-1, 0.92) has been brilliant. Chuck in an unsettling 5.40 ERA from the Dodgers bullpen and one can understand why Dodger Blue has slide from -170 to under -155 against the Reds. What the hell, Cincy might be worth a take at better than +140, with L.A. 17-21 the last two April’s.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Los Angeles
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cincinnati
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 54-49-1 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher –20-24-1ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 77-70-2 ATS