Another big weekend of action line moves and we have it all covered. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (246-197-3 run, 56-40-1 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week.
MLB – (957) ATLANTA at (958) MILWAUKEE 8:10 ET FSSO, FSWI
The Braves Mike Foltynewicz (6-4, 2.02 ERA) and the Brewers Freddie Peralta (3-1, 2.08) have conceded four total runs in their last six combined starts and each has held the opponent scoreless twice. In fact, Foltynewicz has a minuscule 0.87 ERA in his last nine starts. Little wonder the total fell off the cliff from 8.5 to 7.5. This also seems too obvious and both starters could finally get rocked, but that is guessing and instead, I’ll support the numbers as they are.
Betting Trend – 71% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (969) BALTIMORE at (970) MINNESOTA 8:10 ET MASN2, FSNO
At this juncture, Baltimore is just on auto-fade and they were shoved from +110 to +130. The Orioles will use their best hurler, Dylan Bundy (6-7, 3.75), against the Twins Lance Lynn (5-7, 5.49), who has an ERA over 8 in his last trio of starts. Honestly, not much of game with two clubs playing poorly, but at least Minnesota is averaging better than five runs a game recently, compared to the O’s at 2.6 RPG.
Betting Trend – 85% backing Minnesota
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Minnesota
MLB – (977) L.A. DODGERS at (978) L.A.A. ANGELS 10:05 ET SNLA, FSW
For the time being, Kenta Maeda (5-5, 3.36) has shed his up and down tendencies and been quite effective of late. Maeda figures to suppress an Angels offense that is averaging 3.1 RPG in their last 10 contests. Nonetheless, the total in the opening battle in this I-5 series has risen from 8.5 to 9. Among the reason why is a Dodgers offense that has heated up again, which at 6.3 RPG in their last seven. With Dodger Blue at a robust 5.5 RPG on the road and 12-4 OVER in away games after a victory, the OVER makes sense.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
CFL – Saturday – (357) BRITISH COLUMBIA at (358) WINNIPEG 8:30 ET TSN, ESPN+ (side and total)
The news caught quite a few off guard, as QB Matt Nichols is already coming back from injury for Winnipeg. With this the Blue Bombers shot up from -4 to -6 and the total exploded from 53 to 56.5. Though Winnipeg is only 1-2 (2-1 ATS), their offense was already averaging 34.3 PPG. With the Bombers 5-1 ATS of late versus British Columbia and 10-2 ATS after one or more spread losses, let’s take Winnipeg and the OVER Saturday night.
Betting Trend – 74% backing Winnipeg and 64% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Winnipeg covers and Over
MLB – PHILADELPHIA (+105) at PITTSBURGH (-125) (Series Betting)
In the Keystone State, it is a touch surprising to see Pittsburgh favored. When looking deeper, the Pirates do have a slight pitching edge in Game 1 with Trevor Williams and possibly in Game 2 with Jameson Taillon. Philadelphia looks stronger in the series finale and I think since they have the better overall club, they take one of the first two confrontations and take the series.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Philadelphia
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Philadelphia
MLB – TAMPA BAY (+115) at N.Y. METS (-135) (Series Betting)
Jacob deGrom gives New York an edge in the series opener and Blake Snell places Tampa Bay in a pretty good spot in Game 2. With the Mets having not announced their Game 3 starter against the Rays Nathan Eovaldi, that makes this a trickier call. However, Eovaldi is nothing special and so no real advantage for the Rays in that matchup. I’ll play a hunch the Mets offense continues to have a good week and Tampa’s all or nothing bats are cooling down again, which helps place me on the home team.
Betting Trend – 66% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take – New York wins
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 130-121-6 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 50-55-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 166-173-7 ATS