Hope you had a great Independence Day, now, let’s hone in on line moves for today. We have four to follow in baseball and two in CFL action. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (243-194-3 run, 53-37-1 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (901) MIAMI at (902) WASHINGTON 7:05 ET FSFL, MASN
Dusty Baker is looking better and better to Washington fans as the Nationals are under .500 after being swept at home by Boston. Toss out the 17 runs they tallied last week against Philadelphia and in the Nats eight other most recent contests, they have scored 15 total runs. Evidently facing Miami and Pablo Lopez (1-0, 3.00 ERA) is supposed to help as the total in this encounter has climbed from 8.5 to 9. I’m going to disagree with Washington 24-12 UNDER when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. In addition, their starter Jeremy Hellickson (2-1, 2.63) is 10-1 UNDER lifetime versus the Marlins.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
MLB – (905) SAN DIEGO at (906) ARIZONA 9:40 ET FSSD, FSAZ (side and total)
The money line and total do not seem in harmony for this NL West confrontation. The numbers have Arizona down from -160 to -145 and the total sinking from 9 to 8.5. With Shelby Miller 0-2 with an 11.42 ERA in his two starts, it’s understandable to think the D-Backs could struggle. However, that would mean San Diego would be scoring and their starting pitcher Eric Lauer (3-5) has 5.09 ERA on the road. Both offenses have performed poorly of late and so have the respective teams. Let’s call for Arizona to win 5-3 as the bullpens hold the score down.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Arizona and 61% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Arizona and Under
MLB – (909) TEXAS at (910) DETROIT 7:10 ET FSSW, FSD
In this AL encounter, we have two pitchers is horrible form. Yovani Gallardo (2-0, 9.00) is nothing more than a warm body for Texas, with their hope he keeps them at least even with the competition. Gallardo has a 6.11 ERA in three Rangers starts since coming over from Cincinnati. Matt Boyd (4-6, 4.18) has a 9.69 ERA in his last trio of outings for Detroit. That is why it is puzzling to see the total drop from 9.5 to 9. Both offenses have had chances to score more runs than they have in recent games and this should be the spot they get it done.
Betting Trend – 64% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
CFL – (351) HAMILTON at (352) SASKATCHEWAN 9:00 ET TSN (side and total)
With Hamilton QB Jeremiah Masoli playing lights out and Saskatchewan (1-2 SU& ATS) battling quarterback injuries and ineffectiveness, the Tiger-Cats went from -5.5 to -7.5, before settling at -7 earlier this afternoon. Hamilton (2-1 SU & ATS) has won there past two games and scored a total of 69 points. The Roughriders have committed a whopping eight turnovers in burying themselves in a pair of setbacks. Though I expect the Ti-Cats to win, look for Saskatchewan to clean up the turnover mess and lose by three or four points and move to 18-6 ATS at home against this foe. On the total, it’s up two points to 51, but I’ll bet the UNDER with the Ti-Cats 24-9 UNDER after allowing 150 or less passing yards in their last game.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Hamilton and 63% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Saskatchewan covers and Under
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 128-117-6 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 50-55-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 164-169-7 ATS