For line moves, we rattled off our fifth straight winning weekend and start today with four games involving five line moves. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (273-209-4 run, 83-52-2 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next tomorrow.
MLB – (953) N.Y. METS at (954) WASHINGTON 7:05 ET SNY, MASN2
Washington President Mike Rizzo said Bryce Harper would not be traded before the deadline, so unless he is doing a Toronto Raptors front office impersonation, that is probably good information. Is that the reason the Nationals hopped up from -165 to -180 or higher against the always injured Mets? Who knows. This is a game I would pass on personally, but I’d rather take Washington than New York if I wanted to win, even with the risk of the money line.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Washington
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Washington
MLB – (955) CHIC. CUBS at (956) PITTSBURGH 7:05 ET CSN-C, ATT-P (side and total)
If Pittsburgh wants to really jump into the NL Central race, this is their chance, hosting the first place Cubs. Baseball bettors are thinking they can start the right way and the Pirates can steal the opener, flipping them from +110 to -105 or higher. At the same time, they are forecasting a lower scoring confrontation, with the total dipping from 8 to 7.5. Jon Lester (12-3, 3.06 ERA) has been terrific all year, while Jameson Taillon (7-7, 3.73), has surged, having allowed three earned runs or less in 11 straight starts. I’ll say OVER with Pitt 13-2 OVER after a one run loss and take Chicago with the Cubs 17-4 in Lester’s starts in 2018.
Betting Trend – 79% backing Chicago, 76% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Chicago wins and Over
MLB – (959) COLORADO at (960) ST. LOUIS 8:15 ET ATT-RM, FSMW
Colorado blew a 4-0 lead and lost 5-4 in extra innings Monday. Tonight, the total in Game 2 of this series has been bumped from 8 to 7.5. The Cardinals Jack Flaherty (4-5, 3.28) has pitched well for five innings on a reliable basis, but little beyond that point. Jon Gray (8-7, 5.16) has taken his demotion to heart and provided two sterling efforts after being sent to Triple A. I still have a few doubts about each pitcher and certainly about both bullpens and the Rockies are 19-8 OVER on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
Betting Trend – 87% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
MLB – (373) HOUSTON at (374) SEATTLE 10:10 ET ATT-H, RSNW
Houston has more than held up without Carlos Correa, but not having Jose Altuve has been more an issue. Altuve went on the DL over the weekend and the Astros offense was already starting to suffer. Having scored 10 runs in five straight losses and it’s bullpen being battered, Houston nonetheless was elevated from -125 to -150 road faves at Seattle. The Mariners are 14-7 in Mike Leake (8-6, 4.15) starts and he will oppose Charlie Morton (11-2, 2.89). The ‘Stros should be the right choice, but there is a lot of value with the M’s and Houston is 1-7 after a 5-game span where the bullpen ERA was 7.00 or higher.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Seattle
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Seattle
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 144-138-7 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 56-55-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 182-192-6 ATS