For starters, have a great 4th of July, you deserve it. As far as line moves, we have four baseball plays, two sides and two totals and I’m coming off another winning weekend at 4-1. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (242-191-3 run, 52-34-1 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Thursday.
MLB – (901) SAN FRANCISCO at (902) COLORADO 8:10 ET NBC-BA, ATT-RM
After losing four in a row, Colorado has rebounded and have won four of five, including beating San Fran last night. Though the Rockies have won 17 of 23 against the Giants at Coors Fields, they have slid from -130 to -115. No doubt there is a lack of faith in Antonio Senzatela (2-1, 6.23 ERA), who returns from the minors to start. Chris Stratton (8-5, 4.45) has been a positive for his club, who have missed three regular starting pitchers most of the season and the Giants have posted an 11-6 record in his starts. I’ll lean with the underdog, with Stratton and mates 12-5 off a loss.
Betting Trend – 53% backing Colorado
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean San Francisco
MLB – (905) PITTSBURGH at (906) L.A. DODGERS 10:10 ET ATT-P, SNLA
The Dodgers hung a 17 on the scoreboard last night against Pittsburgh and baseball bettors are calling for another Over. Sportsbooks sent out a 7 and after stewing a bit, it went to 7.5. One has to pay attention to the fact L.A. is 15-5 OVER after winning by four or more runs this season. Ivan Nova (4-5, 4.02) has a 1.75 in his last four starts for Pitt and Clayton Kershaw (1-4, 2.84) is still a very elite hurler, which got me thinking. Nova is 18-7 UNDER when the total is 7 to 8.5 and Kershaw is 17-5 UNDER at home in July, which takes me down another path.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
MLB – (909) CLEVELAND at (910) KANSAS CITY 8:15 ET STO, FSKC
I have another line move on the totals side I’m not crazy about. In this AL affair, the total jumped from 8.5 to 9. While it is true Cleveland has scored 24 runs in their last two games and knocked around Danny Duffy (4-7, 4.94) around from time to time, in 13 contests against the Indians the UNDER is 9-4. Tribe starter and rookie Shane Bieber (3-0) has a 2.22 ERA in his first four career starts and the Royals average 3.5 RPG. Take the Under.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
MLB – (923) N.Y. METS at (924) TORONTO 7:07 ET SNY, SNET
The Mets have won two games in a row once since May 18-21, when they took four straight, yet they are a falling underdog north of the border. New York was listed at +135 and are now at +110. Their starter Zack Wheeler (2-6, 4.47) has a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts and he might keep them in the game against Toronto, who is 5-6 in their last 11 contests. The Blue Jays are only a .500 team at home and are hardly a safe bet, but the Metropolitans are 7-24 as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season, making them tough to choose.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Toronto
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Toronto
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 125-117-6 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 49-55-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 162-167-7 ATS