For our line moves picks, we have been on fire, coming off a 6-1 weekend and are now 61.6 percent in our last 120 freebies. Today is all about baseball and three of the line moves involve totals. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (264-203-3 run, 74-46-1 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (903) L.A. DODGERS at (904) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 ET SNLA, NBC-P
As great as Aaron Nola (12-3, 2.30 ERA) has been all season, baseball bettors have decided he’s not pitching for the better team. Philadelphia opened as a -115 favorite over L.A., but have been flipped to +100 underdogs. There is still time for this to jump around, but Kenta Maeda (7-5, 3.12) has pitched nearly as well as his counterpart, particularly of late. Though the Dodgers offense has generated at least 10 hits in six straight games, Nola and Phils are 8-0 at home and 9-0 vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base per game this season.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Philadelphia
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Philadelphia
MLB – (911) WASHINGTON at (912) MILWAUKEE 8:10 ET MASN2, FSWI
After losing seven straight, Milwaukee has won two of three after defeating Washington last night. The betting action is on the total, up from 9 to 9.5. Junior Guerra (6-6, 3.23) is off a rare poor outing and spent some time on the DL, but he’s 13-1 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5 the last three seasons. He will face Jeremy Hellickson (4-1, 3.29), who has enjoyed an unexpectedly good campaign and he’s 10-3 UNDER this season in his starts. My numbers come up to 8.3 for a total and I’ll side with the UNDER
Betting Trend – 70% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
MLB – (925) PITTSBURGH at (926) CLEVELAND 7:10 ET ATT-P, STO
Pittsburgh is as hot as metal car door handle in Phoenix (record high of 117 expected), riding a 10-game winning streak. There is not been anything fluky about it either, with the Pirates scoring 6.4 RPG and allowing only 1.4 RPG. Having conceded so few runs and Cleveland having hung 18 consecutive zeros on the scoreboard the last two contests, the total has dipped from 9.5 to 9. I will take the other side and here’s why. As noted, the Pirates offense is smoldering and Indians starter Shane Bieber has a 5.21 ERA in his last four starts. The Bucs Joe Musgrove has pitched just as poorly with a 5.31 ERA in his past seven starts. I’ll side with the OVER with the Tribe 11-2 OVER at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
MLB – (927) HOUSTON at (928) COLORADO 8:40 ET ATT-H, ATT-RM
With Gerrit Cole (10-2, 2.52) of the Astros opposing Rockies left-hander Tyler Anderson (6-3, 3.72), this has the makings of a lower scoring contest, even in Colorado. The line movement follows that thinking, having sunk from 10.5 to 10. This is a tricky one with Houston 9-0 OVER in road games vs. a team with a bad bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worse. However, I’m going to trust Cole who is 19-7 UNDER when the total is 8.5 to 10 and Anderson who is 17-6 UNDER playing against a team with a winning record since 2016. With the Astros a -145 favorite, they are 22-11 UNDER as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
Betting Trend – 63% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 139-132-6 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 54-55-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 175-184-7 ATS