Free Picks and Predictions on Line Moves for 7/11-12/18

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Another great day for free picks on line moves at 4-1! Let’s move ahead to baseball action and some Thursday night Canadien football. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (254-201-3 run, 64-44-1 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Friday.

MLB – (911) L.A. DODGERS at (912) SAN DIEGO  10:10 ET SNLA, FSSD

With two NL West starting pitchers in top form, the total is down from 7.5 to 7. Kenta Maeda (5-5, 3.24 ERA) and Joey Lucchesi (4-4, 3.27) have pitched well all year and particularly so of late with ERA’s under 1.40 in their past three starts. Though the numbers don’t work out perfectly, the Dodgers only average 3.7 RPG vs. left-handed starters (5.4 vs. RH starter) and San Diego only scores 3.7 RPG period. Though Maeda is 11-3 Under, L.A. is 12-3 OVER when the total is 7 or less and the Friars are 13-4 OVER at home off a victory.

Betting Trend – 72% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

MLB – (927) TORONTO at (928) ATLANTA  7:35 ET  SNET, FSSO  

Once again the total is on the move in this interleague clash, lowered from 9 to 8.5. After permitting six runs in nine starts, the baseball gods got even with  Mike Foltynewicz (6-5, 2.37) as Milwaukee knocked him around for five runs last Friday. Given how well he’s thrown, consider that an outlier showing and look for him to get back on track. Sam Gaviglio (2-2, 3.81) will toe the rubber for Toronto and he’s been solid, but mostly at home. While a lower score would seem in play, Gaviglio is 4-0 OVER outside of Canada and Foltynewicz is 11-2 OVER as a favorite of -110 or higher.

Betting Trend – 62% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over

MLB – (929) ST. LOUIS  at (930) CHIC. WHITE SOX  8:10 ET  FSMW, CSC (side and total)

One aspect of pitching that is very important is walks. When you don’t hand out free passes, it makes it easier to avoid trouble. When you walk opposing batters, a pitcher is tempting fate. That has been the story of Luke Weaver’s (5-7, 4.92) and Carlos Rodon’s (1-3, 4.29) season. They have no command and lose or have good command and leave the game with a lead. Baseball bettors are thinking both hurlers will make mistakes and upped the total from 9 to 9.5. Because the St. Louis has the better squad, they were sent from -140 to -155. Let’s take the Redbirds and the OVER, with Weaver and his mates 8-0 in road night games, with an average total score 11.7 runs.

Betting Trend – 81% backing St. Louis and 74% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – St. Louis wins and Over

CFL – Thursday –  (361) CALGARY at (362) OTTAWA  7:30 ET  ESPN+, TSN

The total is up two points to 55 as Week 4 in CFL action commences. This is rather interesting as Calgary and Ottawa rank #1 and #2 in fewest points allowed thus far. However, the Stampeders are also No.1 in scoring and the RedBlacks are No.4 in points tallied. These teams met 12 days ago that game was UNDER, but that was the first lower score after eight straight OVER’s. Because of the defenses, I’m inclined to believe another UNDER is possible and Calgary is 10-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record since last year.

Betting Trend – 72% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 135-125-6 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 53-55-1 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 171-178-7 ATS

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