Normally on line moves we shy away from the larger ones, but today because a couple are at least 20 cents or more and we have no other choice, we will reports on those and others in baseball. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (250-200-3 run, 60-43-1 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (953) PHILADELPHIA at (954) N.Y. METS 7:10 ET SNY (side and total)
This is very intriguing line movement given the pitching matchup. The team’s split yesterday’s doubleheader and Philadelphia opened as -140 favorite and the total was 9. Having baked for a while, the Phillies are down to -115 and the total slid to 8.5. Rookie pitchers Enyel De Los Santos (Phils) and Drew Gagnon (Mets) will make major league debuts. De Los Santos was scheduled to pitch in the International League in the Triple-A All-Star Game tomorrow before the promotion. As a regular bet I would pass given the starting pitchers, but for a lean, let’s back Philly because the Mets are 3-13 after batting .200 or worse over a 3-game span this season. Our Game Estimator says OVER and that is the best reason I can come up with taking the total.
Betting Trend – 77% backing Philadelphia and 69% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Philadelphia and Over
MLB – (965) TEXAS at (966) BOSTON 7:10 ET FSSW, NESN
Hector Velazquez (6-0, 2.76 ERA) has done whatever Boston has requested and tonight they want him to start against Texas. Based on his record and ERA, Velazquez has done youeverything well and given the Red Sox are 12-2 and 7-0 of late, hard to imagine why they would tumble from -210 to -170. The Rangers will start Yovani Gallardo (3-0, 8.17), who’s been more a good luck charm than effective in his return to the Rangers. Gallardo has 5.87 ERA in four Texas starts and his teammates have averaged 10 RPG when he’s taken the ball. Gallardo stinks, the BoSox are boiling hot and the Rangers are 12-30 after scoring three runs or less in two straight games.
Betting Trend – 93% backing Boston
Doug’s VPID Take – Boston wins
MLB – (967) DETROIT at (978) TAMPA BAY 7:10 ET FSD, FS-SUN
It’s “Bullpen Day” in Clearwater as Tampa Bay will use Ryan Stanek (1-2, 2.12) as their “starter”. Stanek hasn’t allowed a run in his last eight starts covering 11 2/3 innings and allowed only five hits. With the Rays rolling at 12-4 and facing a scuffling Matt Boyd (4-7) for Detroit, Tampa Bay jumped from -165 to -185. The left-hander has given up 20 earned runs in his last 17 innings, ballooning his ERA from 3.23 to 4.58. The Rays offense is either on or off and after scoring 19 total runs in their past two contests, they are is 6-0 after scoring seven runs or more in two straight games.
Betting Trend – 88% backing Tampa Bay
Doug’s VPID Take – Tampa Bay wins
MLB – (977) TORONTO at (978) ATLANTA 7:35 ET SNET, FSSO
In this interleague encounter, bettors are counting on talent, not current results when lowering the total from 9 to 8.5. Normally quality starters Julio Teheran (6-6, 4.47) and Marcus Stroman (1-6, 6.50) will oppose each other and both are incredibly inconsistent this season. The flip side to this is both offenses are non-threatening, averaging 3.7 RPG in their last seven outings. This is more guesswork than a strong play, but I’ll lean with the OVER with Atlanta 11-1 OVER at home in interleague action game the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 63% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 133-124-6 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 51-55-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 169-175-7 ATS