Congrats to Washington for winning the Stanley Cup. This leaves us with one less sport for line moves, but that’s OK because we still have plenty of them for this weekend including series wagering. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (211-170-3 run, 21-12-1 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week.
NBA – (507) GOLDEN STATE at (508) CLEVELAND 9:05 ET ABC
Cleveland’s had their great chances to knock off Golden State and failed both times. They were sent out as a +5.5 point underdog and have come back to +4.5. While some will think the Cavaliers pride will prevent them from being swept, don’t count on it. The Warriors lost in this same spot one year ago 137-116 to Cleveland and I think the team’s pride and determination to win on their opponent’s floor will carry them. The Splash Brothers could not shoot any worse than what they did in Game 3 and the Warriors wrap up their third title in three years.
Betting Trend – 60% backing Golden State
Doug’s VPID Take – Golden State covers
MLB – (957) ST. LOUIS at (958) CINCINNATI 7:10 ET FSMW, FSOH
With the Cardinals having dropped a home series to a miserable Miami club and Luke Weaver (3-5, 4.41 ERA) more inconsistent than expected, St. Louis has slid from -155 to -135 at Cincinnati. The Reds salvaged one game against Colorado yesterday, but having Matt Harvey (1-4, 5.79) take the ball is not necessarily a plus. Let’s back the Redbirds who are 8-0 after scoring four runs or less in three straight games this season.
Betting Trend – 77% backing St. Louis
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean St. Louis
MLB – (971) SEATTLE at (972) TAMPA BAY 7:10 ET RTNW, FS-SUN (side and total)
With Seattle leading the AL West with a 39-22 record, I’m baffled why they are a sinking favorite again versus Tampa Bay. The Mariners opened at -140 with Marco Gonzales (6-3, 2.38), whose given up one earned run in his last 26 innings, yet now they are at -115. While the M’s have won 15 of 19, the Rays have dumped seven straight, including four to Seattle. With starting pitching injuries, apparently, there is nobody in the minors to pitch, as Tampa Bay will start another reliever, this one named Wilmer Font. Maybe the Rays can end their losing streak, but with a 2-15 record after scoring four runs or less in six consecutive contests, Seattle works for me. Additionally, the total fell from 8 to 7.5, however, the M’s are 14-4 OVER on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5, which also works for me.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Seattle, 68% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Seattle wins, Play Over
MLB – (979) N.Y. YANKEES at (980) N.Y. METS 7:10 ET YES, SNY
The Subway Series will feature Jacob deGrom (4-0, 1.49) against Masahiro Tanaka (7-2, 4.79 ERA) in the opener. Baseball bettors are forecasting a scarcity of runs and lowered the total from 7.5 to 7. Tanaka has respectable 3.80 ERA in three starts at Citi Field and faces a Mets lineup that is averaging 1.6 RPG in their last seven contests. deGrom leads the NL in ERA and has surrendered one run at home in 14 innings versus his team’s city rivals. I’ll agree, with the Metropolitans 7-0 UNDER after a game with a combined score of three runs or less this season.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – MILWAUKEE (+130) at PHILADELPHIA (-150) (Series Betting)
In looking at this series, I could see Milwaukee winning Game 1, but since they have scored two or fewer runs 20 times this season, I’m not sure they can beat expected starters Jake Arrieta and Zach Eflin in the other two contests. Philadelphia is the play.
Betting Trend – 63% backing Philadelphia
Doug’s VPID Take – Philadelphia wins
MLB – SAN DIEGO (+115) at MIAMI (-135) (Series Betting)
Every now and again I like to slip in a series nobody should care about and this NL encounter fits the bill. San Diego won the recent series 3-1 at home, but there is the possibility they could be an underdog in all three confrontations. Nevertheless, the Padres have won seven of nine, are a representative 12-15 on the road, are not overmatched in starting pitching and have the absolutely better bullpen.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Miami
Doug’s VPID Take – San Diego wins
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 105-94-6 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 42-51-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 142-140-7 ATS