Despite five day games in baseball, we still four line moves on the diamond and two in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (209-166-3 run, 19-8-1 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Friday.
NBA – (505) GOLDEN STATE at (506) CLEVELAND 9:05 ET ABC (side and total)
We have seen enough influence money to move Cleveland from +5 to +4 and the total to slide one point to 216.5. I definitely prefer the Cavaliers at +5, but they can still be worthy of consideration at the adjusted price. LeBron James will have to reach 40 points and the Cavs will have to make at least 12 three’s to cover and possibly win. With this in mind, if Cleveland is to win to make this series go back to Oak-Town (aka – The Town) they will have to keep scoring and match points with Golden State which leads to Over.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Cleveland and 56% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cleveland and Over
MLB – (965) DETROIT at (966) BOSTON 7:10 ET FSD, NESN
Boston shutout Detroit yesterday 6-0 and they might contain the Tigers bats again with Eduardo Rodriguez (6-1, 3.88 ERA) pitching tonight. The BoSox left-hander has 2.00 ERA over his past three starts. Detroit counters with Blaine Hardy (2-0, 2.77), who’s pitched very well in two starts and the lefty could curtail the Red Sox offense since they have scored more than a run less (1.2) against port-siders compared to right-hand hurlers. Meld this info together and the total is down from 9.5 to 9. I’ll agree with the line movement with Rodriguez and teammates 14-3 UNDER after three or more consecutive wins and Detroit 13-4 UNDER after scoring two runs or less this season.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (967) OAKLAND at (968) TEXAS 8:05 ET CSCA, FSSW (side and total)
In spite of Daniel Mengden (6-4, 2.91 ERA) having his best year in the big leagues to date, he and his fellow A’s players are not drawing much support, crumbling as favorites from -135 to -115. In May, Mengden had a 1.51 ERA and a .181 batting average allowed, which makes the total climbing from 10 to 10.5 all the more suspicious. One could make the case for a larger score with 45-year old Bartolo Colon (2-3, 4.21) most recent efforts showing him with an 8.81 ERA, but that would go against backing Texas. I’ll stick with Mengden and Oakland, as the Athletics are 20-9 when the total is 10 or higher, but back the lower score.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Oakland, 65% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Oakland wins, Lean Under
MLB – (969) SEATTLE at (970) HOUSTON 8:10 ET RSNW, ATTH
Seattle dominated Houston last night to increase their AL West lead. In Game 2 of the series, the Astros remain large home favorites, but the betting action is on the total, which has moved from 8 to 8.5. I’ll take the contrarian point of view and here is why. As mentioned last week, I’m no fan of Wade LeBlanc (1-0, 2.60), but it would foolish of me to not acknowledge how he has pitched this season. Houston’s Lance McCullers Jr. (7-3, 3.89) has been more erratic, but his 1.97 ERA at Juice Park tells you what you need to know about him. Plus, McCullers is 15-4 UNDER at home when the total is 7 to 8.5.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 102-91-6 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 42-51-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 138-138-7 ATS