For line moves, the general trend continues with more moves on baseball totals than money lines. Today we have four ones to look into. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (206-163-3 run, 16-7-1 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (901) L.A. DODGERS at (902) PITTSBURGH 7:05 ET SNLA, ATT-P
The Dodgers offense exploded in Colorado with 33 runs in a three-game sweep of the Rockies. Evidently, Los Angeles is expected to cool off as their series opener total with Pittsburgh has fallen a full run from 8.5 to 7.5. Former Astro Joe Musgrove (2-0, 0.64 ERA) has been brilliant since returning from injury and L.A. starter Ross Stripling (3-1, 1.68) has been close to as good. With the Dodgers favored, Stripling is 12-1 UNDER as a favorite of -110 or higher.
Betting Trend – 63% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
MLB – (913) N.Y. YANKEES at (914) TORONTO 7:07 ET YES, SNET
With CC Sabathia (2-1, 3.73) and Marco Estrada (2-6, 5.68) both pitching more poorly in their last three starts, bettors have forced the sportsbooks to raise the total on this AL East encounter from 9.5 to 10. The Yankees Sabathia has a 7.54 ERA of late and the Blue Jays right-hander is throwing even worse than he has all season with 6.75 ERA. I will go against the grain as the big lefty is 20-12 UNDER against Toronto and the Jays are only averaging 4.0 RPG against port-siders this season.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Unde
MLB – (917) OAKLAND at (918) TEXAS 8:05 ET CSCA, FSSW
After a sparkling start to the season, Sean Manaea (5-6, 3.60) has been getting bashed like Facebook, with an untidy ERA of 9.22 in his past three outings. With Matt Moore (1-5, 7.85) a shell of the hurler he used to be at Tampa Bay, the total has jumped from 10 to 10.5. Though Oakland could score 10 on Moore alone, when the total is 10 or higher and the home team is batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 15 games, the UNDER is 73-29.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (929) MILWAUKEE at (930) CLEVELAND 7:10 ET FSWI, STO
Corey Kluber (8-2, 2.02) has been terrific all season and damn near perfect with an ERA of 0.68 in his past four starts. Milwaukee’s Junior Guerra (3-3, 2.65) hasn’t been quite as good, but he’s been more than sufficient. With these kinds of figures, the total has dipped from 8 to 7.5 in this Midwestern interleague battle of first place clubs. Unless the Cleveland bullpen blows it, there is no reason the Brewers do not move to 19-5 UNDER vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 101-88-6 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 42-51-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 135-137-7 ATS