There are actually seven games that meet our criteria for line moves, but we will limit them to just four because of space and time. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (235-189-3 run, 45-32-1 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here Friday.
MLB – (905) ARIZONA at (906) MIAMI 7:10 ET FSAZ, FSFL
Robby Ray (2-0, 4.88 ERA) returns for Arizona from injury and he must have some fans since on the surface there are not many reasons why the total should fall from 8 to 7.5. It certainly doesn’t have anything to do with Miami starter Wei-Yin Chen (2-4, 6.70), given his results this season. Both teams are averaging over five runs a contest in their last seven outings and the combined average total score is 8.6 RPG when left-handed starters are involved like this confrontation. I’ll stick with the higher score as the D-Backs are 13-4 OVER on the road when facing losing clubs.
Betting Trend – 91% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
MLB – (909) COLORADO at (910) SAN FRANCISCO 10:10 ET ATT-RM, NBC-BA
After years of being an automatic pick for baseball bettors, after two injury-plagued seasons and being on a weaker squad, Madison Bumgarner (1-2, 3.20) is no longer revered. He and Giants opened as -160 home faves and now are hanging out in the minus low 140’s as they prepare to face Colorado. Mad Bum will face a pretty good lefty in Kyle Freeland (7-6, 3.55) and he’s only 5-16 the last two seasons. (Giants record) This is not all Bumgarner’s doing since San Francisco has only averaged 2.8 RPG in his starts in this period. With the Rockies on a three-game slide and San Fran winners of six of seven, I’ll take my chances with the home team.
Betting Trend – 83% backing San Francisco
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean San Francisco
MLB – (913) SEATTLE at (914) BALTIMORE 7:05 ET RS-NW, MASN
Certain baseball bettors are a glutton for punishment evidently. For a third straight day, they have lowered Seattle as a favorite, this time from -125 to a Pick (-105) against bumbling Baltimore. As stated many times here, I think Wade LeBlanc (3-0, 3.26) is pitching way over his head and was finally exposed at Boston last week (11 hits and 6 runs). Nevertheless, given the choice between LeBlanc and Orioles starter Alex Cobb (2-9, 6.56), the former draws my approval. Maybe the Birds finally win, but I cannot back a team that is 1-15 after scoring three runs or less in three straight games.
Betting Trend – 88% backing Seattle
Doug’s VPID Take – Seattle wins
MLB – (915) L.A.A. ANGELS at (916) BOSTON 7:10 ET FSW, NESN
I remember hearing about Andrew Heaney (4-5, 3.43) when he came to the Angels in 2015 from Miami. Though he didn’t throw as hard as reported, he had smooth, repeatable delivery. After a couple of injury-filled seasons, it’s good to see him pitching to his potential. However, I cannot justify him and the Angels dropping from +150 to +130 underdogs at Boston tonight. I’m well aware Rick Porcello has a 5.51 ERA against the Halos and the team’s he pitched for have lost 11 of their past 15 against them. Still, Anaheim has lost seven of 10 and had been outscored 36-4 in four beat-downs against Boston. And Heaney and the Angels are 1-5 on the road this year
Betting Trend – 95% backing Boston
Doug’s VPID Take – Boston wins
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 124-113-6 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 46-54-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 160-162-7 ATS