We are ready to go for line moves this weekend with baseball and some CFL action. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (222-177-3 run, 32-19-1 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here next week.
MLB – (911) SAN FRANCISCO at (912) L.A. DODGERS 10:10 ET NBC-BA, SNLA
This is one of two fierce rivalries which commences tonight and the focus is on the total, which has climbed from 7.5 to 8. Ross Stripling (5-1, 1.65 ERA) has been brilliant for the Dodgers thus far and one cannot help but notice he is 17-5 UNDER as a starter the past three years. That means baseball bettors are thinking the Dodger bats will waste Derek Holland (4-6, 4.54), though he has pitched better of late. It is worth noting Holland is 24-8 OVER after giving up two or less earned runs in his last two outings.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
MLB – (919) HOUSTON at (920) KANSAS CITY 8:15 ET ATT-H, FSKC
A potentially good pitching matchup in K.C. with Charlie Morton (7-1, 2.82) facing Jakob Junis (5-6, 4.05). This has sent the total south from 9.5 to 9 and Kansas City scoring 1.3 RPG in their last eight outings also has something to do with it. Junis was lit up in his last start but usually bounces back. However, Houston averages 6 RPG on the road and Morton is regressing towards career norms. Additionally, the Astros are 17-3 OVER on the road after scoring seven runs or more in two straight games.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (927) WASHINGTON at (928) TORONTO 7:05 ET MASN,SNET
With Washington an outstanding 22-12 on the road this season, they have been shoved from -115 to -130 in their series opener at Toronto. The Blue Jays are only 16-19 at home and will see the tosses of Gio Gonzalez (6-2, 2.65). The Jays do not figure to do a lot with Gonzalez since they are scoring just 3.9 RPG against left-hand starters. With Toronto not good at home and having just been swept at Tampa Bay, they are 3-12 in home games having lost three of their last four games this season.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Washington
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Washington
CFL – (373) TORONTO at (374) SASKATCHEWAN 9:00 ET ESPN2 (side and total)
Toronto is the defending Grey Cup champions and opens their defense of the title on the road. The Argonauts have been bumped up two points from a Pick to -2.5 at Saskatchewan and the total has slid from 52.5 to 50. The Argos still have QB Ricky Ray and pass catcher S.J. Green. But the Roughriders have a potentially potent offense and a strong cast of pass rushers to wreak havoc. With Saskatchewan 20-4 ATS as a home underdog of three points or less, let’s take the home dog and lean UNDER.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Toronto, 62% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Saskatchewan covers, lean Under
CFL – Saturday – (375) HAMILTON at (376) CALGARY 7:00 ET ESPN2
Calgary had the best record in the CFL last year, but could not close the deal and lost in the Grey Cup for a second straight year. The Stampeders opened as 9-point favorites and have slipped to -7.5. The most likely reason is Johnny Manziel being with Hamilton. The Ti-Cats are not expected to start the former “Johnny Football”, but they expect him to make an immediate impact. Though Calgary is 21-2 SU at home versus Hamilton, they are just 11-12 ATS and underdogs the first two weeks of the season are 28-5 ATS in the CFL.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Calgary
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Hamilton
MLB – CHIC. CUBS (-105) at ST. LOUIS (-115) (Series Betting)
The other major rivalry of the weekend is this always fascinating confrontation. The pitching matchups are extremely close and could go either way in the first two contests. St. Louis does have a small edge in the series finale with Jack Flaherty over the Cubs Jose Quintana. Neither team has played well since last Sunday with 1-3 records. I’ll side with Chicago because of the better bullpen and that they were swept near The Arch last month.
Betting Trend – 52% backing St. Louis
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Chicago
Both these clubs are in slumps and the winner of this series can start to feel a little better about itself. Colorado’s bullpen has been getting crushed and they will need their starting pitching to come through, though none are in good form at present. But look at Texas, they lead the majors in strikeouts and are expected to start Yohander Mendez (1st big league start) and retreads Yovani Gallardo and Mike Minor, both whose best pitches were thrown years ago. Though the Rockies are nothing special, they are better than the Rangers.
Betting Trend – 59% backing Colorado
Doug’s VPID Take – Colorado wins
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 115-98-6 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 44-53-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 151-148-7 ATS