Going head deep into baseball, as we have SEVEN big line moves for Tuesday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (216-172-3 run, 26-14-1 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (951) COLORADO at (952) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 ET ATT-RM, CSP (side and total)
Philadelphia has fallen 20 cents on the money line (now -145) to Colorado, but why? The Rockies have lost four straight, eight of 10 and the bullpen has allowed 8.5 runs per game in this stretch. Does Jon Gray (6-6, 5.66 ERA) really seem like a better choice against Aaron Nola (7-2, 2.35)? Sure the Phillies offense is struggling, but Nola and friends are 11-1 at home when he’s working on five or six days rest. The total has also dipped from 7.5 to 7, which I’m less sure of, but the Phils and Nola are 7-0 UNDER when NL foe has less than .400 slugging percentage.
Betting Trend – 88% backing Philadelphia, 62% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Philadelphia wins, lean Under
MLB – (965) TORONTO at (966) TAMPA BAY 7:10 ET SNET, FS-SUN
After being completely ineffectual, the Tampa Bay offense has scored 19 runs in their past three games and won twice. Tonight they will again use “opener” for starting pitcher, with reliever Ryan Stanek (1-1, 3.14) and he’s not allowed a run in four outings this month. Toronto counters with unreliable Jamie Garcia (2-4, 5.57). The Rays opened as -120 favorites, but have slid to -110 or lower. I would recommend passing but will give the slightest of edges to the home team because Garcia is brutal.
Betting Trend – 70% backing Toronto
Doug’s VPID Take – Slight lean Tampa Bay
MLB – (969) CLEVELAND at (970) CHIC. WHITE SOX 8:10 ET STO, WGN (side and total)
Adam Plutko (3-0, 3.93) will make his fourth spot start of the season for Cleveland. He’s been bouncing back and forth from the minors and after his last big league start, Plutko tossed a no-hitter at Triple-A. Baseball bettors remained unconvinced even against the White Sox and torpedoed the Tribe from -170 to -135. The Pale Hose have not lost their last three series (2-0-1) but have been outscored 29-10 in four losses to Cleveland. With James Shields (1-7, 4.92) taking the ball for Chicago, the total has climbed like Guns N’ Roses guitarist Slash’s reported divorce settlement from 9.5 to 10. With the Indians 32-8 off two straight wins by four or more runs, I’ll support them and figure the Sox offensive woes (2.9 RPG in L7) continues.
Betting Trend – 91% backing Cleveland, 68% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Cleveland wins, Lean Under
MLB – (979) WASHINGTON at (980) N.Y. YANKEES 7:05 ET MASN, WPIX (side and total)
Two division leaders collide in interleague action in the Bronx. Not unexpectedly, the money is following the Yankees, up 15 cents to -175, with CC Sabathia (3-1, 359) toeing the rubber. Washington counters with Tanner Roark (3-6, 3.56), who has not received much run support and he should have a better record. The total has dropped from 9.5 to 9, in part because of the effectiveness of both starters and the offenses. The normally potent Bronx Bombers are averaging 3.9 RPG in their last seven contests and the Nationals average 3.8 RPG vs. LH starters. Let’s stick with the UNDER for the total. On the side, both clubs are exceptional in home/road scenarios, but I’ll lean with the Yanks, but fully expect the Nats to split the two-game series and could win here.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Under, 66% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under, lean New York
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 109-96-6 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 42-52-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 146-142-7 ATS