It’s November in college football which means anything is possible. Here are Saturday’s newest line moves and update on previous ones. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (402-314-10 in 2018, 23-14 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow
CFB – (327) SYRACUSE at (328) WAKE FOREST 12:00 ET W- ESPN *New*
Syracuse is 6-2 this season and credit coach Dino Babers for uplifting the program. The Orange is averaging 46.3 PPG and has been elevated from -4 to -6.5. Syracuse is off an impressive victory against N.C. State, but can the Orange maintain the same emotional pitch? Remember, after battling Clemson down to the wire, the ‘Cuse lacked the same focus the following week at Pittsburgh and lost. Wake Forest needs two wins for bowl eligibility and discount the three points they scored against Clemson, in their other seven contest they have tallied over 37 PPG. The Demons Deacons can hang with the Orange and teams like Syracuse that outscore their opponents by seven or more PPG, after allowing 31 points or more in three straight contests, are just 9-37 ATS.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Syracuse
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Wake Forest
CFB – (333) NEBRASKA at (334) OHIO STATE 12:00 ET FOX
This is the most fascinating line move of the week in college football. Ohio State was sent out at -21 and has fallen to -18.5. I’m not sure that holds up thru Saturday when Buckeyes money starts pouring. Nebraska has just one victory but has covered three straight. Ohio State has not beat the number in their last four outings and you are probably thinking when was the last time that happened. Shocking, (even to me) it has happened in 2013, 2015-16. Update – There has been an uptick in Buckeyes bucks and they are at -19.5. Look for this to continue to grow with Urban Meyer 27-9 ATS with two or more weeks preparation in his career.
Betting Trend – Was 68% backing Ohio State, now 82%
Doug’s VPID Take – Ohio State covers
CFB – (335) GEORGIA TECH at (336) NORTH CAROLINA 12:15 ET ACCN
Georgia Tech has won three of four and is starting to play like a typical Paul Johnson team. When the Yellow Jackets hang on to the ball, they 3-0 SU and ATS against FBS competition. When they do not they are rambling wreck at 0-4 SU and ATS. With North Carolina having offensive and defensive issues, the Tar Heels have risen from +3.5 to +6 point home underdogs. Update – The trust factor on Georgia Tech has eroded as the week went on with the Yellow Jackets down to -4.5. I’m just thinking if they can win at Virginia Tech like last week they can win and cover in Chapel Hill. The Jackets are 13-3 ATS off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog.
Betting Trend – Was 91% backing Georgia Tech, now 80%
Doug’s VPID Take – Georgia Tech covers
CFB – (339) DUKE at (340) MIAMI-FL 7:00 ET ESPN2 *New*
Duke and Miami are both 5-3 and have lost two straight. The Blue Devils have seen their run defense fall completely apart, torched for 297 YPG in their last three outings. Miami lacks playmakers on the perimeter and has not gotten very good quarterback play in averaging 18.3 PPG in their past trio of ACC contests. Bettors are still backing the Hurricanes who are 12-1 SU and 8-5 ATS vs. Duke, which includes four straight covers. A nod to the Canes.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Duke
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Miami-FL
CFB – (349) OKLAHOMA at (350) TEXAS TECH 8:00 ET ABC
Football bettors are ignoring the fact the home team is on the 5-0 cover run in this Big 12 battle and they have elevated Oklahoma three points to -13.5. Besides the fact the Sooners offense has been almost unstoppable with Skyler Murray, it is hard to overlook Texas Tech has 10 turnovers in their last four games. Update – A one half point dip has left this spread at 13. Red Raiders mistakes are the reason to back the Sooners.
Betting Trend – Was 79% backing Oklahoma, now 72%
Doug’s VPID Take – Oklahoma covers
CFB – (355) NOTRE DAME at (356) NORTHWESTERN 7:15 ET ESPN *New*
While many handicappers are backing Northwestern with the points, Notre Dame is a growing favorite from -7 to -10. There are reasons to like the Wildcats since they are 28-17 ATS in November compared the Irish being 11-21 ATS this month. There is support for Northwestern as a home underdog, but they are under .500 in that role since 2009 and under 30 percent when it’s more than a touchdown, doing their best work as a road pooch. Expect Notre Dame to win by 13.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Notre Dame
Doug’s VPID Take – Notre Dame covers
CFB – (389) TEXAS A&M at (390) AUBURN 12:00 ET ESPN *New*
Taking Texas A&M from +6 to +3.5 is a vote for Jimbo Fisher and a vote against Gus Malzahn. Despite the loss at Miss. State last week, the Aggies are 3-1 of late and 6-2 ATS on the season. Auburn is off a bye and they are looking to change their fortunes since they are 2-5 ATS since beating and covering versus Washington in the opener. With the Tigers still having to travel to Georgia and Alabama, this is a win they badly need. However, for whatever reason, the Tigers are 0-7 ATS against teams who force 0.75 or fewer turnovers game on the season.
Betting Trend – 65% backing Texas A&M
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Texas A&M
CFB – (393) LOUISIANA TECH at (394) MISS. STATE 7:30 ET SECN
After losing three of four, Mississippi State played a quality game and beat a solid Texas A&M crew. That win satisfied bettors enough that they have pushed the bell-clangors from -19.5 to -23 against Louisiana Tech. At this point not saying that is wrong, but coach Skip Holtz road dog teams are 13-6 ATS. Plus, these SEC Bulldogs have Alabama on tap. Update – On Wednesday this spread moved to 24, before settling at 23.5. L.T. covered at LSU earlier this year and road teams after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, against an opponent after going under the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 33-9 ATS. Miss. State wins but by 17 or less.
Betting Trend – Was 61% backing Louisiana Tech, now 86%
Doug’s VPID Take – Louisiana Tech covers
CFB – (415) UTSA at (416) UAB 7:30 ET beIN
UAB is playing the best football in C-USA at 7-1 SU and ATS and there only misstep is a still bewildering 23-point loss at Coastal Carolina in Week 2. The Blazers were released as 19.5 point faves and moved to a chalky -22.5. UAB had a flat performance at UTEP last week, only scoring 19 points, but pitched a shutout and covered the -15.5. With UTSA one of the worst offenses in college football at 17.4 PPG, can the Blazers post their fourth shutout and beat the spread for a seventh consecutive time? Update – UAB slipped a point to -22 but in this contest, it’s the favorite or pass.
Betting Trend – Was 92% backing UAB, now 79%
Doug’s VPID Take – UAB covers
Public’s Favorite Sides Bets (21-23-1 ATS) in order: Oregon, Houston, Utah State, Louisiana Tech and Mich. State
Public’s Favorite Totals Bets (29-16) in order: USC/Oreg, St. OVER, UCLA/Oregon OVER, Memphis/ECU OVER, Cal./Wash. St. OVER and Navy/Cinc. OVER
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 222-223-12 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 95-84-2 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 325-325-14 ATS