Free Picks and Predictions on Line Moves for 10/31/18

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Another potent weekend of free plays on line moves with a 10-6 record. Let’s get this week rolling! Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (399-312-10 in 2018, 20-12 of late) to see what we are thinking today. See you back here tomorrow.

CFB – (305) BALL STATE at (306) TOLEDO  7:30 ET  ESPN2  (side and total)

MACtion continues tonight with an East Division contest. Toledo has skyrocketed from -17 to -19 and taken the total for a ride also, as that number has gone from 61.5 to 65. This Rockets club is not what we are used to watching at only 4-4 and the problem is the defense, which is permitting 33 PPG. Ball State only gains 15 fewer YPG than Toledo but has scored 23.8 PPG compared to their 40.7. The Cardinals will also be without their normal starting QB, which makes matters worse. If you figure the Rockets get their normal scoring average and Ball State just reaches 20, that’s a cover for Toledo. The total seems high, but this home team is 17-4 OVER in their stadium after a win by 17 or more points.

Betting Trend – 70% backing Toledo and 67% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Toledo and Over

NBA – (701) DETROIT at (702) BROOKLYN  7:35 ET  FSD, YES

Detroit has played well and lost to Boston on the road by only three last night and opened as a one-point favorite at Brooklyn. Despite the fact Brooklyn is just 2-5 and losers of three straight, the Nets have been flipped from dogs to -2.5 point faves. What gives, the Pistons might be 4-2, but they have a -1.6 score differential. Here are two hidden gems that favor Brooklyn. First, they average four more three-pointers per contest than Detroit, while allowing the same amount. Also, the Nets are 15-4 ATS versus teams averaging 88 or more shots a game the last three seasons.

Betting Trend – 67% backing Detroit

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Brooklyn

CFB – (333) NEBRASKA at (334) OHIO STATE  12:00 ET  FOX 

This is the most fascinating line move of the week in college football. Ohio State was sent out at -21 and has fallen to -18.5. I’m not sure that holds up thru Saturday when Buckeyes money starts pouring. Nebraska has just one victory, but has covered three straight. Ohio State has not beat the number in their last four outings and you are probably thinking when was the last time that happened. Shocking, (even to me) it has happened in 2013, 2015-16.                     

Betting Trend – 68% backing Ohio State

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

CFB – (335) GEORGIA TECH at (336) NORTH CAROLINA  12:15 ET  ACCN

Georgia Tech has won three of four and is starting to play like a typical Paul Johnson team. When the Yellow Jackets hang on to the ball, they 3-0 SU and ATS against FBS competition. When they do not they are a rambling wreck at 0-4 SU and ATS. With North Carolina having offensive and defensive issues, the Tar Heels have risen from +3.5 to +6 point home underdogs.

Betting Trend – 91% backing Georgia Tech

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

CFB – (349) OKLAHOMA at (350) TEXAS TECH  8:00 ET  ABC

Football bettors are ignoring the fact the home team is on the 5-0 cover run in this Big 12 battle and they have elevated Oklahoma three points to -13.5. Besides the fact the Sooners offense has been almost unstoppable with Skyler Murray, it is hard to overlook Texas Tech has 10 turnovers in their last four games.  

Betting Trend – 79% backing Oklahoma

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

CFB – (393) LOUISIANA TECH at (394) MISS. STATE  7:30 ET  SECN

After losing three of four, Mississippi State played a quality game and beat a solid Texas A&M crew. That win satisfied bettors enough that they have pushed the bell-clangors from -19.5 to -23 against Louisiana Tech. At this point not saying that is wrong, but coach Skip Holtz road dog teams are 13-6 ATS. Plus, these SEC Bulldogs have Alabama on tap.

Betting Trend – 61% backing Louisiana Tech

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

CFB – (415) UTSA at (416) UAB  7:30 ET  beIN

UAB is playing the best football in C-USA at 7-1 SU and ATS and there only misstep is a still bewildering 23-point loss at Coastal Carolina in Week 2. The Blazers were released as 19.5 point faves and moved to a chalky -22.5. UAB had a flat performance at UTEP last week, only scoring 19 points, but pitched a shutout and covered the -15.5. With UTSA one of the worst offenses in college football at 17.4 PPG, can the Blazers post their fourth shutout and beat the spread for a seventh consecutive time?

Betting Trend – 92% backing UAB

Doug’s VPID Take – Coming Friday

 

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 51% to 79% – 220-221-12 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2018) – 80% or Higher – 94-84-2 ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2018) – 323-322-14 ATS

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