Once again for line moves, we have full regalia of information about the NBA and NHL playoffs, plus baseball games. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (509) BOSTON at (510) MILWAUKEE 8:05 ET TNT
Milwaukee looks to extend their season and end Boston’s tonight. Though the total is 2-2 thus far in the series, basketball bettors have elevated the total from 218 to 220. The Bucks defense has been stifling in the playoffs, as other than their Game 1 in this series when the Celtics shot 54%, in the other seven contests they have held opponents to under 40% from the field. Look for Milwaukee to go for the kill shot and an explosive output to end the series and they are 11-1 OVER off two or more upset wins as a road underdog.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
NHL – (27) COLORADO at (28) SAN JOSE 9:08 ET NBCSN
Just like yesterday, the home team in a Game 7 is getting the money, as San Jose has moved up from -130 to -140 or higher depending on where you wager. No doubt Colorado has a chance to win, yet, they are 12-22 after scoring four goals or more in their previous game. San Jose is no prize since they are 6-11 after a road game where both teams scored three or more goals. So why am I taking the Sharks? Colorado’s Philipp Grubauer has been the better goalie in this round, but in the Sharks three wins, they kept coming. That is what San Jose has to do, put the pressure on the Avalanche defense and create breakdowns and force Grubauer to be a star, on the road.
Betting Trend – 95% backing San Jose
Doug’s VPID Take – San Jose wins
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MLB – (959) SAN FRANCISCO at (960) COLORADO 8:40 ET NBCSBA, ATTRM (side and total)
Colorado has fallen from -170 to -145 or lower against San Francisco, as those betting baseball are paying attention. The Rockies have scored 6.9 RPG in their last seven, but guess what, they’ve allowed 7.7! That’s a problem and even the light-hitting Giants plated 14 times last night. Both Derek Holland (1-4, 5.34 ERA) and Jon Gray (3-3, 4.12) have been brutal of late with ERA’s over 7 and 5 respectively. With each pitcher’s history, not much to go on and I’ll just lean with the Rockies because San Francisco is 18-40 after four or more road games. The total falling from 10.5 to 9.5 is weather related with rain expected. This is another nasty call because you don’t know about the weather, but I’ll support the line move and maybe we’ll it will just be rained out making this easier.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Colorado, 53% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Colorado and Under
MLB – (971) L.A.A. ANGELS at (972) DETROIT 7:10 ET FSW, FSD (side and total)
An under the radar pitching matchup with Matt Boyd (3-2, 3.05) facing Tyler Skaggs (3-2, 3.12). With neither team having a potent offense, particularly in home/road scenario (both at 3.7 RPG of lower), the total is down from 8.5 to 8. The other aspect of this contest that is different is Detroit has been flipped from a +100 home underdog to a -114 favorite. I’ll agree with the line movement on the ML with Boyd and the Tigers 10-2 at home vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse. However, I’ll take the OVER, as AL home teams with the total is 7 to 8.5, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.20 or better, with a struggling bullpen whose ERA is over 8.00 the last five games, are 30-9 since 2015.
Betting Trend – 55% backing Detroit, 58% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Detroit wins, Play Over
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 77-67-2 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher –25-32-1ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 100-98-3 ATS