Free Picks and Predictions for May 7

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An excellent full boat of line moves for your Tuesday with various sports across the board including a big Game 7 in hockey. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here tomorrow.

NBA – (507) PORTLAND at (508) DENVER  10:35 ET  TNT

The series is tied at 2-2, but the Over is 3-1 to this point and the total for tonight has been elevated from 212.5 to 214. Great shooting has only come into play once and that was in Game 1 when both teams knocked down better than 50% of their attempts. In the last two contests that went past the total, offensive rebounding played a huge part in second chance points. The two teams are on a combined 14-2 OVER run against winning teams (each 7-1) and these two are 7-1 OVER versus each other of late.

Betting Trend – 76% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

NHL – (23) DALLAS at (24) ST. LOUIS  8:08 ET NBCSN

The money and public are taking the home team in Game 7, as St. Louis has risen from -140 to -160 favorites over Dallas. But here is the deal, since 2015, home teams are 10-10 in Game 7’s. The Blues are only 26-21 SU on home ice this season and in the playoffs, a miserable 2-4 SU. This is not to say St. Louis cannot win, but from a value perspective the Stars should be the choice and they are 4-2 on the postseason road.

Betting Trend – 65% backing St. Louis

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Dallas

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MLB  – (905) MIAMI at (906) CHIC. CUBS  8:05 ET  FSFL, NBCS+

After winning seven straight and 16 of 19, the Chicago Cubs gagged up a 4-3 ninth inning lead last night to a miserable Miami team and lost 6-5. Sportsbooks sent the Cubs out at -200, but baseball bettors have noticed two things about who Chicago is playing tonight. The Marlins and starter Caleb Smith (3-0, 2.00 ERA) have won four in a row as underdogs, picking up +5.6 units in the process. Tonight, Miami will face Jon Lester (2-1, 1.73) and they are  9-4 (+11.1 units) vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 2.40 or better. This has sent the ML down to -155. This could very well be a close contest, yet, Lester in his career is 46-12 vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse for his career.

Betting Trend – 85% backing Cubs

Doug’s VPID Take – Cubs win

MLB  – (913) CHIC. WHITE SOX at (914) CLEVELAND 6:10 ET  CSCH, STO (side and total)

Cleveland’s is down two starters on their staff and is batting an AL-worst .213. The Indians opened as -160 home faves but that made too many queasy and they have since slipped to -135. However, I have reservations about Sox starter Lucas Giolito (2-1, 5.32). Yes, he has ability with 30 K’s in just over 23 innings, but is one of those pitchers who go – 3 up and 3 down – for two innings and then give up three or four runs in an inning. Cleveland starter Jefry Rodriguez (0-1, 2.13) can contain the Pale Hose and his team is 61-26 at home revenging two straight losses as a home favorite. The total has also fallen from 9 to 8.5, yet, the Indians are 13-3 OVER at home vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs a game on the season.

Betting Trend – 82% backing Cleveland, 86% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Cleveland wins, lean Over

Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 75-67-2 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher –24-30-1ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 97-96-3 ATS

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