Free Picks and Predictions for May 17-19

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Here is a complete look at line moves and baseball series betting for this weekend. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here next week.

NBA  – (545) TORONTO at (546) MILWAUKEE 8:35 ET  TNT

The Game 1 total of 218 was 10 points too high and sportsbooks lowered it to 214. The public has not agreed and moved it up to 216.5. I’m going to agree with the oddsmakers as both teams have shot below their season shooting percentage in six of their last seven games. I’ll say the oddsmakers are spot on at 214 and side with the UNDER.

Betting Trend – 70% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

MLB  – (901) CHIC. CUBS at (902) WASHINGTON 7:05 ET  WGN, MASN (side and total)

The Chicago Cubs have blown two leads at Cincinnati and lost the series and are a falling underdog at Washington. The Cubs have gone from +115 to +145 road underdogs, either because they will have issues with the Nationals Max Scherzer (2-4, 3.64 ERA) or there road bullpen ERA 5.56 will flare up again. At the same time, the total has gone from 7.5 to 8. After being smoking hot, the Cubs offense has cooled without Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist out, down to 2.9 RPG in their last seven tries. Scherzer has 2.45 ERA against the Cubs, while Cole Hamels is at a 2.67 ERA in 37 starts vs. the Nats. Washington’s bullpen is actually worse than the Cubs, making the Over a possibility, but I’ll lean with Chicago with Mad Max and friends 1-6 as a favorite.  

Betting Trend – 52% backing Under, 52% on Chicago

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over, lean Chicago

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MLB  – (915) TAMPA BAY at (916) N.Y. YANKEES 7:05 ET  FSSUN, YES

The lumber must be coming out in this anticipated AL East series as the total is up a full run from 8.5 to 9.5. CC Sabathia (2-1, 3.26) will toe the rubber for New York and Ryan Stanek (0-1, 2.45) will continue in the “opener” role. where he has a 1.62 ERA, but that climbs to 3.38 on the road. When these teams met last week in Florida, the Over was 2-0-1. Maybe somebody knows something I don’t, as the Rays are 10-0 UNDER after a game with a combined score of two runs or less and 10-2 UNDER against LH starters this season.

Betting Trend – 73% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

MLB – (925) KANSAS CITY at (926) L.A.A. ANGELS  10:07 ET FSKC, FSW

Here is something I did not expect to see this season, Matt Harvey (1-3, 6.69) being bet up as a favorite. The Angels right-hander has gone from -145 to over -160 against Kansas City. The Royals 14-29 record and 5-14 away mark has a lot to do with that, but their starter Brad Keller (2-4, 4.47) has at least kept K.C. in games with nine starts of at least five innings. While it’s true the Halos are the better team, I cannot support them with Harvey as a starter at this price and will take a rum-dum Royals crew against the Angels, who are 2-9 after a loss by two runs or less this season. 

Betting Trend – 92% backing Los Angeles

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Kansas City

MLB – HOUSTON (Even) at BOSTON (-120) (Series Betting)

Houston with Gerrit Cole has the advantage over Rick Porcello in the series opener and Chris Sale will be favored over Brad Peacock in the Game 3 matchup. That would mean the middle game between Corbin Martin and Hector Velazquez is the decider. Yikes! That is a really nasty choice with both teams playing well and I’ll side with the better bullpen, which the Astros have.

Betting Trend – 55% backing Houston

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Houston

MLB – MILWAUKEE (-105) at ATLANTA (-115)  (Series Betting)

The Brewers are only 11-11 on the road, but Atlanta has not been much better playing at home at 12-11. The Braves will have modest home field edges the first two games and I’ll say the teams split those. In the Sunday finale, the preference is Brandon Woodruff over a struggling Mike Foltynewicz which place me on Milwaukee.

Betting Trend – 53% backing Atlanta

Doug’s VPID Take – Milwaukee wins

Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 86-74-3 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher – 28-32-1ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 113-108-4 ATS

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