For line moves on, we will do something that will happen a lot this between now and September, have all baseball games. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (903) CHICAGO CUBS at (904) CINCINNATI 6:40 ET WGN, FSOH
Is anyone really shocked the Cubs have gone from -105 to +120 against Cincinnati? Let’s be realistic here since having Yu Darvish (2-3, 5.40 ERA) as their starter makes every Cubs player and fan think after less than an inning, “Here we go again!”. Darvish leads the majors with 33 walks in 36 2/3 innings and obviously has no faith in his fastball, primarily throwing curves and sliders, which he cannot control. Still, Cincinnati right-hander Sonny Gray (0-4, 4.15) does not invoke confidence being winless. This is a hold your nose selection that really seems 50-50 and I’ll side with underdog Cubs because of the value.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Chicago
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Chicago
MLB – (905) MILWAUKEE at (906) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 ET FSWI, CSP (side and total)
The third contest in this four-game set has Philadelphia as a falling favorite, lowered 20 cents to -110 and the total on the rise from 8.5 to 9. Gio Gonzalez (1-0, 1.69) has been more effective than Jake Arrieta (4-3, 3.78), who has an ERA of 6.19 in his past three starts. Like most pitchers, Gonzalez has more luck at home than on the road, thus, I’ll take a flyer on Philly with the lefty 2-10 in road games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse. (Team’s record) Otherwise, the total is the more preferred play and hard to overlook the Brewers are 11-1 UNDER on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
Betting Trend – 71% backing Under, 59% on Milwaukee
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under, Lean Philadelphia
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MLB – (911) SAN DIEGO at (912) L.A. DODGERS 10:10 ET FSSD, SNLA
Last night’s Paddock vs. Kershaw pitching matchup was thought to be an easy Under 7 and instead Los Angeles won 6-3. Once against the total is slipping, this time from 8 to 7.5, but it’s a much harder choice with Matt Strahm (1-2, 3.00) facing Kenta Maeda (4-2, 4.03). Why you might ask, it’s simple, you never know how Maeda might pitch. He’s alternated good and bad outings in his last seven starts and he’s coming off six scoreless innings against Washington. It’s tough to ignore Maeda is 9-1 Under as a home favorite of -150 or more, yet, these SoCal rivals are 14-5 OVER at Dodger Stadium and the home team is averaging 5.8 RPG at home.
Betting Trend – 63% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
MLB – (925) COLORADO at (926) BOSTON 7:10 ET ATTRM, NESN
The total in this interleague affair has jumped from 8.5 to 9, with both Colorado and Boston swinging the lumber extremely well in scoring over 7 RPG in their last seven tries. While an Over seems as obvious as Alabama playing for the national champion in college football, I’ll stick my neck out and go contrarian. The Rockies German Marquez (4-2, 3.43) has a 1.55 ERA on the road and Eduardo Rodriguez (4-2, 4.53) has a 2.78 ERA in his last half dozen starts. With Marquez 23-10 UNDER on the road and the Red Sox 12-2 UNDER in home games revenging a one run loss, I’ll step out and take the lower score.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 82-73-3 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher – 28-32-1ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 109-107-4 ATS