Today we will explore the latest line moves and take a two baseball series for betting purposes. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here next week.
NBA – (519) GOLDEN STATE at (520) HOUSTON 9:00 ET ESPN
With the first five games of this West semi-final having totals anywhere from 219 to 224.5, taking Kevin Durant out of the lineup dropped the total all the way down to 212. Hoops bettors were not convinced that is correct and the total has been adjusted upward to 214.5. Both the games in Houston in this series were Over’s and coach Steve Kerr will be telling his team that it will be defense, not offense, which could end this series in H-Town. The Rockets are 19-7 UNDER when facing elimination and I will go that way on a very tough call.
Betting Trend – 82% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (957) SAN DIEGO at (958) COLORADO 8:40 ET FSSD, ATTRM
Colorado trails San Diego by 3.5 games in the NL West and will look to close the gap at home against the Padres. The line moves are definitely in favor of the Rockies to open the series with a victory as they have been moved from -150 to -165. Colorado is only 2-3 on the homestand but their offense is heating up faster than the weather in Denver, with 10 or more hits in six of their last seven contests. The Rocks will face Eric Lauer (2-3, 4.30 ERA). However, the Padres are 11-6 on the road and their offense has tallied two more runs than their season average in their last seven games at 5.9 RPG and they are 8-3 away after five or more home games and 10-4 away vs. RH starters.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Colorado
Doug’s VPID Take – San Diego wins
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MLB – (971) N.Y. YANKEES at (972) TAMPA BAY 7:10 ET YES, FSSUN (side and total)
This is a big battle in the AL East with currently the two best teams. Rays starter Tyler Glasnow entered this season with a 4-16 record and 5.35 ERA, pitching for Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay last season after being traded. But, like usual, the Rays do magical work with hurlers and Glasnow is 6-0 with a league-best 1.47 ERA so far this season. He’ll face the Yankees Domingo German whose also blossomed this season with a 6-1 record and 2.35 ERA. Bettors are all over the Rays, up from -140 to over -160. With how well each starter has pitched, the total dipped from 7.5 to 7. I’m looking for the upset here as German is 3-0 on the road the Yankees are a solid 9-6 when not wearing pinstripes (Rays just 11-8 at home). Also, prefer the Under with Tampa Bay 32-13 UNDER after scoring and allowing three runs or less.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Tampa Bay, 59% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – New York wins, Play Under
MLB – CLEVELAND (+120) at OAKLAND (-140) (Series Betting)
As always with series bets, pitching changes do occur which could affect the outcome. Oakland is the opening game favorite at around -160, as Frankie Montas has been effective for the A’s. Trevor Bauer gives the Indians the edge in the middle contest which will be on FS1 at 4:00 EDT. Mike Fiers takes the ball for the Athletics Sunday after his no-hitter, against Jefry Rodriguez. Both offenses are scuffling and though the A’s have won five of six at home over the Tribe, the Cleveland bullpen is more appealing and I’ll go with them to win the series, somehow.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Oakland
Doug’s VPID Take – Cleveland wins
MLB – PHILADELPHIA (-145) at KANSAS CITY (+125) (Series Betting)
Going with the Phillies in this interleague matchup. The Royals are going with Homer Bailey in the opener and we would probably take Philadelphia if they were starting a wooden statue against Bailey, instead of Jake Arrieta, since he’s 1-15 after a loss the last two seasons. (Team’s Record) In Game 2, Zack Eflin has only had one poor start and we will side with him over K.C.’s Brad Keller, who walks too many and does not strike out enough batters. The series finale could go either way with Vince Velasquez facing the Royals Jakob Junis. Even if Kansas City exceeds expectations for six innings in every game, coming in this weekend, the Royals have home bullpen ERA of 5.75, with the Phillies at 3.48 pen ERA on the road.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Philadelphia
Doug’s VPID Take – Philadelphia wins
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 78-69-2 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher – 26-32-1ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 102-100-3 ATS