Another big weekend of action with the NBA Finals, Stanley Cup Finals and baseball. We look at the biggest line moves and series betting in MLB. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (10-8-1 of late) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here next week.
NBA – (527) TORONTO at (528) GOLDEN STATE 9:07 ET ABC
After the total went over in Game 3 because Golden State could not play good enough defense, the closing total of Wednesday’s affair of 209.5 was adjusted to 216. (214 was the opening total for Game 3) Despite Klay Thompson returning, their remains uncertainty about the Warriors scoring and the total has dipped to 215. Oddly enough, the Warriors have scored 109 points in each Finals contest and Toronto has averaged 115 PPG in the three battles. I don’t see the Raptors scoring less than 106 points, so the OVER works for me.
Betting Trend – 77% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (953) CINCINNATI at (954) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 ET NBC-P, FSOH (side and total)
Color me befuddled why Philadelphia would drop from -155 to -120 or lower against Cincinnati. Sure, Zack Eflin is only 5-5 and missed his last start with back tightness, but he has a 3.02 ERA that gets even better at home (2.25). The Reds Tyler Mahle (2-5, 4.26 ERA) has his moments, but his team has lost eight of his 11 outings. The Phillies are 20-11 at home and take this one. The total has come down from 9.5 to 9 and I’m buying with Cincy 22-11 UNDER in night games and 34-17 UNDER after scoring four runs or less in three straight games.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Philadelphia, 62% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Philadelphia wins, Play Under
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MLB – (965) TAMPA BAY at (966) BOSTON 7:10 ET FSSUN, NESN
With Tampa Bay having a better record than Boston and a sensational road record at 20-9, the Rays are down a whopping 25 cents from +130 to +105 at Fenway Park. The visitor is 4-1 this season and Boston is 11-20 after scoring seven runs or more in four straight contests. Yonny Chirinos (6-2, 3.25) vs. Rick Porcello (4-5, 4.76) does not provide many answers, though the team’s Porcello has pitched for are 18-11 against the Rays. Both clubs need innings from these starters with a doubleheader tomorrow and I’ll side with the Red Sox who are 15-2 revenging two straight home losses since 2017.
Betting Trend – 54% backing Tampa Bay
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Boston
MLB – (975) CHIC. WHITE SOX at (976) KANSAS CITY 8:15 ET NBCSCH, FSKC
What! The total is going down with Ivan Nova (3-5, 6.24) facing Homer Bailey (4-6, 6.05) in this AL Central showdown! WTF! Yes, it’s true, bettors have lowered the total from 10 to 9.5 and unless there is snowstorm going thru Kansas City on Friday night, I’m taking the Over. Of course, I know the Royals are scoring 2.4 RPG in their last seven and I’m fully aware when these two hurlers met in Chi-Town on May 27th the White Sox won 2-1. Screw it, don’t care! Nova’s 10-1 OVER in road games when playing against a team with a losing record and K.C is 11-1 OVER revenging a one-run loss.
Betting Trend – 67% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – N.Y. YANKEES (-125) at CLEVELAND (+105) (Series Betting)
The Yankees should be favored in all three games in Cleveland, though a couple of them will be lower figures with Zach Plesac and Shane Bieber toeing the rubber for the Tribe in Games 1 and 3 respectively. Ultimately, New York has too much offense which will be the difference in the series, though, it should be closely contested.
Betting Trend – 66% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take – New York wins
MLB – OAKLAND (-115) at TEXAS (-105) (Series Betting)
The numbers belie what should be a hotly contested AL West series. Texas has arguably the better starter in the series opener with Lance Lynn and Oakland’s got the better hurler in Game 3 with Frankie Montas. The middle game has Adrian Sampson vs. a TBD pitcher for the A’s, but unless it’s Catfish Hunter or Vida Blue in their prime (Google the names), that contest is a tossup. I’ll side with Texas for having the better bullpen when it comes to saves and because they are 22-10 at home.
Betting Trend – 52% backing Texas
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Texas
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 108-91-4 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher – 35-37-1ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 135-132-5 ATS