We dive into Wednesday line moves and could have included Game 3 in the NBA Finals. Golden State has slipped a point to -4.5 but that is basically because of the unknown status of Klay Thompson or how well he could play with the hammy. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (6-3-1 of late) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (955) ATLANTA at (956) PITTSBURGH 7:05 ET FSSE, ATTPT
Baseball bettors rode Atlanta hard yesterday and while they not as big on them today, the Braves are up from -115 to over -125 on the money line. This NL matchup is not nearly as comfortable as yesterday’s mostly because Kevin Gausman (2-4, 5.56 ERA) of Atlanta has an ERA of 9.00 in his last three outings, though only one was just really horrible. The Pirates Joe Musgrove (3-6, 4.57) continues to show why Houston gave up on him as a starter. Since I don’t care for either starter, I’ll side with the better bullpen (Braves) and that fact that Atlanta is 17-12 on the road and Pittsburgh is 11-18 at home.
Betting Trend – 81% backing Atlanta
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Atlanta
MLB – (957) SAN FRANCISCO at (958) N.Y. METS 7:10 ET NBCSBA, SNY
After giving six runs in the 10th inning in a 9-3 loss, those betting baseball are undeterred by New York’s loss and are backing the Mets. New York is up 15 cents to -145, with starter Jason Vargas pitching like a decade ago with a 2.81 ERA in his past three starts and he has 1.80 ERA this season at Citi Field. San Francisco starter Tyler Beede (7.82) is very hittable and against lefties this season, the Giants are 28th in the majors in scoring.
Betting Trend – 77% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take – New York wins
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MLB – (961) COLORADO at (962) CHIC. CUBS 8:05 ET ATTRM, WGN
With a cold front coming through Chicago, the reason why the total went from 8 to 7 has little to do with German Marquez (6-2, 3.48) and Yu Darvish (2-3, 5.03), tonight’s pitchers. Winds are expected to be blowing in from left field and center most of the game which means somebody would need a surface to air missile launcher to hit one out in those directions. This is an uncomfortable number, especially with Darvish, thus, I’ll say OVER, believing the worst I should get is a Push.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
MLB – (967) MINNESOTA at (968) CLEVELAND 7:10 ET FSNO, STO
For a second straight day on line moves, we have this AL Central conflict, but this one involves the money line and not the total. Cleveland was released at -140 and slid to -125 against Minnesota. Martin Perez (7-2, 3.71) was lit up in his last outing, which is not surprising since he’s a career .500 pitcher. Yet, he has an ERA of almost 10 in four starts vs. Cleveland, all losses for the teams he pitched for. Nonetheless, Carlos Carrasco (4-6, 4.98) has been hit hard all season, allowing 1.14 hits an inning and he’s in the Top 10 in homers allowed with 14. With the Twins15-4 after a loss this season and leading the big leagues in dingers, nice underdog spot here.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Minnesota
Doug’s VPID Take – Minnesota wins
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 105-88-4 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher – 34-35-1ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 130-128-5 ATS