For line moves today we dive headfirst into baseball. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (901) ATLANTA at (902) PITTSBURGH 7:05 ET FSSE, ATTPT
Neither of these NL teams are playing well lately and that still includes Atlanta, who did win their series over a dumpy Detroit team, but still allowed 17 runs to the Tigers. Baseball bettors are hot on the Braves anyways, bumping them up from -130 to -165 over Pittsburgh. Max Fried (7-3, 3.28 ERA) is a important reason why and with the Pirates 6-9 against left-handed starters, averaging a pathetic 3.2 RPG, this is understandable. Though Pitt’s Steven Brault (5.87) has not been good, with the total at 9, it’s worth noting he and the Bucs are 8-1 when the total is 8.5 to 10. Still, prefer the Bravos who are 12-4 on the road after five or more consecutive home games and 10-5 vs. LH starters.
Betting Trend – 86% backing Atlanta
Doug’s VPID Take – Atlanta wins
MLB – (909) CINCINNATI at (910) ST. LOUIS 8:15 ET FSOH, FSMW
This is a tricky money line, made tougher by the line move. Cincinnati, with Luis Castillo (5-1, 2.45) opened at -130 over St. Louis, but have slipped to -115. Castillo has not been as sharp with a 5.50 ERA in his last three starts and the Cardinals after a brutal May have won four in a row. Redbirds starter Genesis Cabrera is the unknown in this contest. Let’s go upset with St. Louis 11-2 at home when the money line is +125 to -125 and 25-6 after a game where they stranded three or less runners on base.
Betting Trend – 61% backing Cincinnati
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean St. Louis
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MLB – (915) N.Y. YANKEES at (916) TORONTO 7:07 ET YES, RSN
There is no question the total tumbling in this AL East affair from 9.5 to 9 does not make sense. The Yankees are 19-4 OVER on the road and 11-0 OVER as an away favorite of -125 or more. But does the majority of the betting public know something? Using our shovels we find Masahiro Tanaka (3.20, 1.18 WHIP) has a fine ERA and Toronto is 11-3 UNDER vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. Jays starter Clayton Richard is nothing more than a journeyman, but against lefties, the Yankees only average 4.5 RPG, compared to their season average of 5.3 RPG. So is the Under, the better choice? Nah, Tanaka does not always perform well against weak hitting teams and is 13-3 OVER in road games vs. an AL team with a club batting average of .255 or worse since 2017. Grab the OVER.
Betting Trend – 57% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (917) MINNESOTA at (918) CLEVELAND 7:10 ET FSNO, STO
Those betting baseball look at this deep and power-laden Minnesota lineup and smell runs. That is why the total jumped from 8.5 to 9 even against a good-looking hurler like the Indians Shane Bieber (3.67). The Twins are 19-9 OVER on the road and when refreshed by a day off away from home, they are 7-0 OVER. However, Bieber is 8-2 UNDER this season and the Twins Devin Smeltzer tossed six shutout innings in his lone start of 2019. With the Tribe 15-6 UNDER when the money line is +125 to -125 and 26-11 UNDER at home after being shutout in a loss to a division rival, let’s go low.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 103-87-4 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher – 33-35-1ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 128-126-5 ATS