For line moves this weekend, let’s talk baseball, CFL football, and MLB series wagering shall we! Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks, and predictions (35-26-2 of late) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here next week.
MLB – (907) PITTSBURGH at (908) MILWAUKEE 8:10 ET ATTPT, FSWI
It’s a rare day in baseball when we have not one, but two totals moving a full run without weather added to the equation, yet, that is precisely what we have. No such line move would happen unless we have starting pitchers that would help the cause and in Chris Archer (3-6, 5.56 ERA) and Jhoulys Chacin (3-8, 5.88) we have just that, as both are having brutal seasons, which has pushed the total from 10 to 11. I’m struggling with this one but cannot ignore Archer is 9-1 OVER as an underdog of +125 to +175 and the Pirates are 9-1 OVER after a win by four runs or more this season, with both angles averaging over 12 RPG.
Betting Trend – 76% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
MLB – (909) L.A. DODGERS at (910) COLORADO 8:40 ET SNLA, ATTPM
Now I realize I just said it takes starting pitchers with a high ERA to lift a total a full run, like in this NL West showdown from 11.5 to 12.5. The last thing Hyun-Jin Ryu (9-1, 1.27) is having a bad year, leading the majors in ERA at 1.27. However, lifetime, Ryu has a 4.61 ERA against Colorado and at Coors Field, 7.56. Antonio Senzatela (6-5, 4.91) will go for the Rockies and his home ERA is gargantuan 6.21 this season. These teams tallied 20 runs last night and Colorado is 9-1 OVER at home after a game with a combined score of 17 runs or more. But Ryu is having such an incredible year and Senzatela is 19-8 UNDER the last two seasons. I’ll side with the UNDER.
Betting Trend – 64% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
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MLB – (919) TEXAS at (920) TAMPA BAY 7:10 ET FSSW, FSSUN (side and total)
Tampa Bay is down 25 cents to -125 against Texas and it’s justified. Texas has won five in a row while the Rays have lost 11 of 16 and had to travel after playing an 18-game game yesterday. Tampa Bay has to be pooped and the Rangers are 10-3 after allowing one run or less this season. Taking the underdog. The total has also fallen from 9 to 8.5. We have two good starters in Lance Lynn (9-4, 4.32) and Yonny Chirinos (7-3, 3.00) to support this. Plus, the Rays hitters should be arm weary and Texas is 9-1 UNDER after three or more wins this season.
Betting Trend – 64% backing Texas, 81% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Texas wins, Play Under
CFL – (683) MONTREAL at (684) HAMILTON 7:30 ET TSN
Hamilton is 2-0 (matching ATS mark) and hung 64 points on Toronto last week and opened as a two-touchdown favorite over Montreal. That’s a lot of points to hand out this early in the season even if the Alouettes are will start their backup quarterback and are fair at best. Since the Ti-Cats has come down to -12.5. First instinct is to take Montreal but their defense was shredded for over 600 yards in their first game and Hamilton can move the pigskin. Let’s side with the home team who is 8-1 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards in their previous game.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Hamilton
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Hamilton
MLB – CHIC. CUBS (-105) at CINCINNATI (-115) (Series Betting)
The Reds have won both series this season and brings a 4-2 edge over first-place Chicago. The Cubs will have the edge in the series opener with Cole Hamels facing Sonny Gray. Cincinnati will have a similar advantage in Game 2 with Luis Castillo taking on a laboring Jose Quintana. That sets up Sunday to pick the series winner and I’ll say Jon Lester does enough to outduel Anthony DeSclafani in a high scoring affair and take Chicago.
Betting Trend – 53% backing Chicago
Doug’s VPID Take – Chicago wins
MLB – ST. LOUIS (+115) at SAN DIEGO (-135) (Series Betting)
Both teams will be in the second half of their season by series end and for both, the first half was a disappointment, being basically .500 clubs. In Game 1, the Cards Michael Wacha is battling thru injuries and just isn’t right, making San Diego the pick. In the middle matchup, two young pitchers we really like in Dakota Hudson and Chris Paddock. Hudson has been extremely sharp, while Paddock has slid a bit and permitted seven homers in past four outings, take St. Louis. In the series finale, it’s the Padres because Redbirds starter Miles Mikolas is 1-4 with a butt ugly 8.20 ERA on the road.
Betting Trend – 56% backing San Diego
Doug’s VPID Take – San Diego wins
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 128-106-5 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher – 38-41-1ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 150-152-6 ATS