Let’s move ahead on line moves and check out baseball and the Week 3 CFL lid lifter on Thursday. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (30-25-2 of late) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here Friday.
MLB – (905) N.Y. METS at (906) PHILADELPHIA 7:05 ET SNY, NBCSNP
After losing seven straight, Philly has beaten the Mets twice this week and baseball bettors are counting on that to happen again. The Phillies have flown from -130 to -150 and they will start Nick Pivetta (4-2, 5.54 ERA) and he’s been as inconsistent as umpire Angel Hernandez’s strike zone. But we are talking about the fun-loving Mets here and whoever is calling the shots and they are 2-13 in road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB’s/start) and 4-15 away vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start this season.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Philadelphia
Doug’s VPID Take – Philadelphia wins
MLB – (917) TEXAS at (918) DETROIT 7:10 ET FSSW, FSD (side and total)
Texas was released as a -120 favorite and have come back as +100 road underdogs to a lowly Detroit outfit. Enough MLB bettors don’t like the Rangers .500 record against LH starters and the fact Tigers starter Matthew Boyd is 12-3 at home vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse. (Tigers Record) Sorry, not buying it from a team that scores 3.5 RPG and is 61-126 vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits a start the last three seasons. With Mike Minor (7-4, 2.52) taking the pill for Texas, the total has slid from 9 to 8.5. Not crazy about this, but impossible to ignore Minor is 9-1 UNDER vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse in 2019.
Betting Trend – 80% backing Texas, 52% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Texas wins, Lean Under
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MLB – (919) TAMPA BAY at (920) MINNESOTA 8:10 ET FSSUN, FSNO
In spite of Minnesota having won four of the first five battles between these teams, the Twins have been flipped from -115 to +105 home underdogs. The starting pitching matchup is exquisite with Jake Odorizzi (10-3, 2.58 ERA) facing AL ERA leader Charlie Morton (8-1, 2.31). My numbers have a very tight tilt, but I found this and like it: Minnesota is 20-3 at Target Field after scoring eight runs or more.
Betting Trend – 57% backing Tampa Bay
Doug’s VPID Take – Minnesota wins
CFL – Thursday – (681) EDMONTON at (682) WINNIPEG 8:30 ET TSN (side and total)
Edmonton has started 2-0 (1-1 ATS), while Winnipeg has won and covered it’s lone assignment to start the season. The Eskimos have statistically dominated their two contests, outgaining the opposition by 280 YPG. The Blue Bombers have installed an RPO offense and in their initial contest, they averaged 7.4 YPR. Depending on the sportsbook, Edmonton opened at -3.5 or -4 and is now at -5. I’ll take the points with the Eskimos offense on fire and Winnipeg is in a negative system of mine about a favorite off a division win at 6-26 ATS. Scoring is on the rise this season in the CFL, which is why the total is up two points to 58, but the Blue Bombers are 8-1 UNDER after a bye and I’ll go that direction.
Betting Trend – 53% backing Edmonton, 76% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Edmonton covers and Under
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 127-102-5 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher – 37-41-1ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 147-149-6 ATS