We have a big card of line moves today in baseball action! Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks and predictions (14-11-1 of late) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (557) CHIC. CUBS at (558) COLORADO 8:40 ET WGN, ATTRM (side and total)
Peter Lambert of Colorado had an impressive debut, giving up just one run in seven strong innings at Wrigley Field in beating the Chicago Cubs. The 22-year old will make his home debut against the same team tonight versus the same opponent, Jose Quintana (4-5, 3.77 ERA). Bettors are not forecasting the same results, taking the Cubs from -115 to -135. Last week’s 3-1 outcome is not considered a possibility either as the total has climbed from 11.5 to 12. While Lambert is unlikely to have the same success, the Rockies have won nine straight at Coors and 14 of 16, while the Cubs are on a 1-6 road downer. If these teams could not reach 12 with last night’s starters, cannot see it happening tonight with Quintana 31-14 UNDER in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw three walks or less a game.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Chicago, 53% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Colorado and Play Under
MLB – (971) TORONTO at (962) BALTIMORE 7:05 ET SNET, MASN
Another mystery game for yours truly. In a scuffle (battle is too strong a word) between two terrible AL East clubs, Toronto has been flipped from +110 to -115 at Baltimore. The Orioles were my top futures bet on season win totals (Under 59.5), but they are going to win some games and they are only three games behind the Blue Jays in the standings. Like what I’ve seen from Birds starter John Means (5-4, 2.67) and if the bullpen does give it away (always a chance), Baltimore should hang a W.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Baltimore
Doug’s VPID Take – Baltimore wins
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MLB – (973) CINCINNATI at (974) CLEVELAND 7:10 ET FSOH, STO
It’s the annual battle of the Ohio Cup and we start in the northern part of the state where Cleveland has gone from a Pick (-105) to a -125 or higher. The Indians Trevor Bauer (4-6, 3.93) is on a career-worst five-game losing streak, but his team played very well last week in winning home series against the Twins and Yankees. Bauer is opposed by the Reds Luis Castillo, (6-1, 2.38) who’s having a special campaign. I’d like to back Cincinnati here, however, they are 6-22 after allowing four runs or less in four straight games and are scoring a grisly 2.1 RPG in their last seven.
Betting Trend – 53% backing Cincinnati
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Cleveland
MLB – (975) MILWAUKEE at (976) HOUSTON 8:1O ET FSWI, ATTSW (side and total)
These former division rivals open up a quick two-game set in H-Town. The Astros have come back to earth, opening at -145 and now under -120 versus Milwaukee. A bit perplexed about this when considering the starting pitchers, Freddy Peralta (3-2, 5.11) for the Crew and Brad Peacock (5-3, 3.20) for the ‘Stros. Despite Houston’s rock solid 24-9 home record, their bullpen has been brutal the last week and the Brewers are 26-9 vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less homers a start. Still, the Peacock/Astros combo is 15-3 when the money line is -100 to -150. The total has dipped from 9 to 8.5 and the Brew Crew is 9-0 UNDER in road games after four or more consecutive wins, yet, Peralta is s 11-3 OVER when the total is 8.5 to 10. Houston and the OVER work here.
Betting Trend – 77% backing Houston, 52% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Houston and Over
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 113-92-4 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher – 35-37-1ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 138-134-5 ATS