For line moves heading into the All-Star break, let’s talk baseball, CFL football, and MLB series wagering. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks, and predictions (39-29-2 of late) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here next week.
MLB – (953) PHILADELPHIA at (954) N.Y. METS 7:10 ET NBCSNP, SNY
With how well Jacob deGrom (4-7, 3.32 ERA) usually pitches you would think he the Mets would be involved in a vast number of Under’s. However, this season deGrom is 11-5 OVER. A big part of that is New York having the No. 28 bullpen based on ERA. With this, the total has jumped from 8 to 8.5. Another contributing factor is the Phillies Vince Velasquez (2-5, 4.73) and their bullpen which has 5.67 road ERA. With the Metropolitans 17-3 OVER after a loss by four runs or more this season, have to take the higher score.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
MLB – (967) N.Y. YANKEES at (968) TAMPA BAY 7:10 ET YES, FSSUN
We are just past the halfway point of the season, but Tampa Bay is slipping further behind the Yankees in the AL East and their wild card slot is becoming more precarious with Oakland charging. The betting action is on the total, lowered from 9 to 8.5 in the clash. Masahiro Tanaka (5-5, 3.74) will take on rookie Brendon McKay (1-0, 0.00) who is making his second start with six innings of one-hit pitching. McKay is listed as a “can’t miss” prospect and Tanaka is 10-4 with a 3.06 ERA in 17 career starts against the Rays. Not backing the line movement, with the Yankees 11-3 OVER on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 and Tampa Bay 22-7 OVER after conceding eight or more runs.
Betting Trend – 83% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
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MLB – (971) TEXAS at (972) MINNESOTA 8:10 ET FSSW, FSNO
Though Minnesota is in first place on July 5th for the first time in 17 years, having lost two straight series and five of seven is a cause of concern for some baseball bettors. The Twins are still substantial -170 home faves over Texas tonight, but they were sent out at -190. Besides their recent play, former Ranger Martin Perez (7-3, 4.15) is a concern with an ERA of almost 5 in his past three starts. Still, hard not to check the box on Minnesota who is 23-9 after a loss this season and Texas starter Adrian Sampson (6-5, 4.16) has an ERA of 8.65 on the road in four starts, all Rangers’ defeats.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Minnesota
Doug’s VPID Take – Minnesota wins
CFL – Saturday – (693) BRITISH COLUMBIA at (694) TORONTO 7:00 ET TSN (side and total)
British Columbia might be 0-3 (1-2 ATS), but they are still thought of as the superior team over Toronto (0-2 SU & ATS) in this contest of winless clubs. The Lions have been bumped from -6.5 to -7.5 and the Argos are being outscored by 37.5 PPG thus far. With the spread going over a key number of seven and the underdog 7-2 ATS, going to hold my nose and take Toronto. The total is slid three points to 54.5 and with these squads 18-6 UNDER at Toronto, why not?
Betting Trend – 88% backing British Columbia, 71% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Toronto covers and Under
MLB – MILWAUKEE (-125) at PITTSBURGH (+105) (Series Betting)
Milwaukee’s offense has gone missing, averaging 2.8 RPG in their last 10. Nonetheless, because they are 8-2 against Pittsburgh this season, they are favored in this series. One would think the Brewers would take the opener with Zach Davies pitching, but until the Brew Crew shows more offense, I think the Pirates can win Friday. The other two pitching matchups are also tight and with the Bucs entering this series on a 10-4 move, I’ll say they win it.
Betting Trend – 53% backing Milwaukee
Doug’s VPID Take – Pittsburgh wins
MLB – COLORADO (+130) at ARIZONA (-150) (Series Betting)
Neither of these teams is catching the Dodgers in the NL West, but each remains in the wild card chase. After Colorado lost their first two tilts to Arizona, they are 8-0 since. The Diamondbacks should win Game 1 with Zack Greinke, but they are 0-3 with him pitching against Colorado this season, while the Rocks Antonio Senzatela and his teammates are on a 3-0 run vs. the Snakes. In the middle contest, Jon Gray and Robbie Ray could also be close. Like Colorado to take the series finale with German Marquez over Tyler Clarke. After facing the Dodgers and Astros, this step down in class benefits the Rockies and they take advantage of the D-Backs 17-22 home record.
Betting Trend – 56% backing Arizona
Doug’s VPID Take – Colorado wins
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 132-108-5 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher – 38-42-1ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 153-154-6 ATS