Free Picks and Predictions for July 17


If most of today’s line moves look like yesterday’s when considering the teams, that is correct. So many day games have something to do with it, however. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks, and predictions (51-36-2 of late) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here tomorrow.

MLB – (961) SAN DIEGO at (962) MIAMI  7:10 ET  FSSD, FSFL

Yesterday’s total in this matchup also went down in similar fashion as today’s Padres vs. Marlins contest from 8 to 7.5. Last night’s total of eight ended up being way off as Miami won 12-7, while I don’t expect that many runs to be scored, the OVER is quite appealing. While I’m a big Chris Paddack (5-4, 2.84 ERA) fan, the Marlins Trevor Richards (3-10, 4.18) is nothing special and Miami is 22-10 OVER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better. Plus, the Friars are 11-3 OVER after allowing nine runs or more this season. 

Betting Trend – 88% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

MLB  – (965) TAMPA BAY at (966) N.Y. YANKEES  7:05 ET  FSSUN, YES

I’m of the opinion baseball bettors are looking at Tampa Bay’s recent run production and what New York is capable of and moved the total from 9.5 to 10. And while this AL East confrontation is on a 4-2-1 Over move, this doesn’t look right. Tonight’s starting pitchers Yonny Chirinos (8-4, 3.11 ERA) and Domingo German (11-2, 3.40) are having fine years. My research finds Chirinos is 5-1 UNDER on the road and German is 6-0 UNDER at Yankee Stadium. Impossible to overlook the Rays are 15-5 UNDER in road games vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB’s/start) and the Yankees are 16-6 UNDER at home after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs.

Betting Trend – 56% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under


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MLB – (969) DETROIT at (970) CLEVELAND 7:10 ET  FSD, STO

It appears Cleveland’s Mike Clevinger is hitting his stride in conceding only one run in his last two starts, which covered 11 innings. Detroit’s Spencer Turnbull (3-8, 3.59 ERA) carries a 7.07 ERA in three starts against the Indians into Wednesday’s game and despite this, the total has dipped from 9.5 to 9. However, the Tigers have not scored a single run for Turnbull in that trio of starts and probably won’t score much either tonight in Cleveland. Let’s look at the UNDER with Turnbull 12-5 UNDER for the year and the Indians 11-2 UNDER at home after five or more home games this season. 

Betting Trend – 59% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under


Kansas City exploded for 11 runs last night versus Chicago and in the Royals past five games they have averaged 7.2 RPG in their last five outings. Contrast that Chicago, who has posted a mere 1.9 RPG in their past seven contests. Toss in pitchers Ivan Nova (4-8, 5.60) and Danny Duffy (3-5, 4.64), who are not exactly fooling anyone and that adds to the confusion. Though the starting pitchers and bullpens are hardly quality, not sure K.C. will keep hitting and we know the White Sox are not. That is why I’ll agree with the total being lowered from 10.5 to 10 and say this contest lands on nine for an UNDER.

Betting Trend – 66% backing Chicago, 77% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under

Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 142-114-5 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher – 40-43-1ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 158-164-6 ATS


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