For a Tuesday, we have more line moves coming your way on the diamond! Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks, and predictions (49-33-2 of late) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (903) SAN DIEGO at (904) MIAMI 7:10 ET FSSD, FSFL
Though the interest level would not be high for this NL encounter, somebody is paying attention and the total dipped from 8.5 to 8. The driving forces are a Padres and Marlins offenses that are averaging a notch over three runs a game in their last seven contests and Miami starter Jordan Yamamoto (3-0, 1.24 ERA), who’s been brilliant as a rookie. San Diego rookie Logan Allen (2-1, 4.50) has gotten worse in each of his three starts. Because of the bullpen, I’m hesitant to make a strong case for the UNDER, but based on the basic numbers, that appears to as the right way to bet.
Betting Trend – 62% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
MLB – (913) TAMPA BAY at (914) N.Y. YANKEES 7:05 ET FSSUN, YES
Tampa Bay catcher Travis d’Arnaud hit three homers against New York including the ninth inning game-winner to beat the Yankees. Emotionally, that had to be a huge lift for the Rays who has defeated New York three straight times. Baseball bettors are less convinced and lifted Tampa Bay from +130 to +150 for tonight’s tilt. The Rays offense is scoring 6.3 RPG in their past seven outings, with the Yanks at only 3.6 RPG in the same span. CC Sabathia and his teammates are 6-1 at home this year, but I like the value with the hotter team. Tampa is 11-1 after a game where their bullpen blew a save this season and I’ll take a shot here.
Betting Trend – 77% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Tampa Bay
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MLB – (919) CHIC. WHITE SOX at (920) KANSAS CITY 8:15 ET NBCSCH, FSKC (side and total)
I am bewildered why Chicago went from +110 to -120 against Kansas City. The White Sox have lost four in a row and six of seven and while the Royals Glenn Sparkman (2-5, 5.18) does not look like the next Bret Saberhagen (Google it if you don’t know), the ChiSox Dylan Cease (1-0, 5.40) does not inspire confidence either. K.C. is playing better and hitting the ball, so they get my vote. The total has blossomed from 10 to 10.5 and the Royals are 10-2 OVER at home when the total is 10 or higher this season.
Betting Trend – 66% backing Chicago, 77% on Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Kansas City wins and Lean Over
MLB – (925) WASHINGTON at (926) BALTIMORE 7:05 ET MASN2, MASN
In the “The Battle of the Beltways”, the total has climbed from 11 to 11.5. If you are mostly unfamiliar with starting pitcher Austin Voth (0-0, 5.52) for Washington and Asher Wojciechowski (0-2, 6.10) Baltimore, you have plenty of company. Seeing neither pitcher is expected to be around long and these clubs having the two worst bullpens in baseball, though the number is large it makes sense.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 139-112-5 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher – 40-43-1ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 156-161-6 ATS