Football Line Moves, Betting Trends and Free Picks for Sept. 28-29


We have all the latest line moves in the NFL as we head into Week 4, along with the betting trends. In addition, we have early call on college football contest on ESPN. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (257-205 of late and recent 41-31 mark), when posted,  to see what we are thinking. See you back here on Friday.

NFL – (251) INDIANAPOLIS vs. (252) JACKSONVILLE 9:30am ET  CBS		Bright and early for Colts and Jaguars fans for this across the pond divisional clash in London. The money is following Indianapolis, who has been altered from -1 to -2.5. While this does make perfect sense, the talent difference is not significant and Jacksonville takes advantage of Indy’s defense and maybe saves their coach’s job for now.

Betting Trend – 71% backing Indianapolis

NFL – (253) CLEVELAND at (254) WASHINGTON 1:00 ET  CBS

Thought Cleveland has yet to win a game, they should have beaten Miami last week. Those betting are not enamored with what they have seen from Washington and believed they were way to large a favorite against the Browns at -10 and were sent two points lower to -8. Hard to argue with that thinking since the Redskins are 20-44 ATS at home playing against a team with a losing record the last 34 years.

Betting Trend – 75% backing Cleveland

NFL – (263) TENNESSEE at (264) HOUSTON 1:00 ET  CBS

With two offenses averaging 14 points a game, it is not going out on limb to believe this could be lower scoring game and the total is down a digit from 41 to 40. Just keep in mind nine of the 14 games played in Houston have been OVER’s and Tennessee is 27-13 OVER after scoring seven points or less in the first half of consecutive contests.

Betting Trend – 61% backing Over

NFL – (273) LOS ANGELES at (274) ARIZONA 4:25 ET  FOX

The Rams are tied for first and the Cardinals are tied for last in the NFC West. Welcome to the NFL! Oddmakers made Arizona a 9.5 point favorite but quicker than a coyote howling after dark, the Cards have been lowered to 8.5 and by Wednesday to -8. It all boils down to Carson Palmer and pass protection to pick a winner and Arizona is 1-10 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points.

Betting Trend – 51% backing Arizona

NFL – (275) KANSAS CITY at (276) PITTSBURGH 8:00 ET  NBC

Kansas City picked off Ryan Fitzpatrick six times last week and Ben Roethlisberger was systematically picked apart by Philadelphia defense this past Sunday. Evidently the Steelers are expected to bounce back and have been elevated from -4 to -5.5 over the Chiefs. Pittsburgh is rock solid 14-4 ATS after permitting 30 or more points.

Betting Trend – 58% backing Pittsburgh

NFL –Monday –  (277) N.Y.GIANTS at (278) MINNESOTA 8:30 ET  ESPN

Initially, when this contest was released, nothing much happened but over night on Tuesday going to Wednesday morning, Minnesota was up a point from -3.5 to -4.5. Though the Vikings are 31st in total offense, they are 6th in total defense, third in fewest points allowed (13.3) and No. 1 in sacks with 15. With the Giants weaknesses in the offense line and the Vikes 17-3 ATS since last season, this does make sense.

Betting Trend – 76% backing Minnesota

CFB – Thursday(105) CONNECTICUT at (106) HOUSTON 8:00 ET  ESPN

Funny about some of the betting sites who will be nameless, that are supposed to show you opening odds and current odds. Some of these places have a different agenda and this contest is perfect example. Most of these sites had Houston opening at -28 and still at -28. However, because I had to write an article for somewhere else Sunday, one sportsbook is noted for being the first to market and had Houston at -23 that afternoon. By that evening, the other books were posting -24.5 and by Monday were at -27. So if you happen to visit any of these sites, truth be told, Mr. Line Moves here was all over this from the start.

As far as the game, while I appreciate what UConn has done defensively, they just allowed 31 points to Syracuse in home loss and 425 yards and barely average over 20 PPG. Houston’s only defeat in the last two years is against Connecticut (Greg Ward Jr. was injured) and the Cougars are 11-3 ATS as 20-point or larger favorites recently.

Betting Trend – 83% backing Houston

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Houston


Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 205-180-2

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 145-116-1

Line Movement Direction Record – 357-317-3


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