Football Line Moves and Betting Trends for Dec. 6th


We have seen some revolving numbers for line moves and we have all the early action covered in football. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (391-319 of late) when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.

CFB –  (103) ARMY vs. (104) NAVY 3:00 ET CBS  (side and total)

The side and total really dropped in this annual event with the news Navy quarterback Will Worth is done for the season with injuries and running backs Toneo Gulley and Darryl Bonner both left last week with their full status still unknown. Because the side and total were set before the AAC championship game, the precipitous drops on Navy from -10 to -6.5 and total down a whopping six points to 48, over exaggerate how most spreads are determined. These teams have played 10 straight UNDER’s and this should be Army’s best chance for a win since 2001.

Betting Trend – 56% backing Navy and 58% on Under

NFL – (107) SAN DIEGO at (108) CAROLINA  1:00 ET CBS

With last week’s defeats, both these team’s seasons are over and professional pride has to kick in for the last quarter of the campaign. Bettors are seeing less offense than the linemakers and lowered the total from 49.5 to 48. This is at least a mild surprise with San Diego’s offensive capabilities going up against Carolina’s 30th ranked pass defense and the Chargers having a 8-4 OVER mark. If Cam Newton decides to wear a tie to game, he will get the start and with the season a complete failure, maybe he can start having fun again. When the total is between 42.5 and 49 points, teams like San Diego who average 27 or more PPG, against a defensive allowing 23-27 PPG, after conceding seven points or less in the first half of two straight contests, they are 29-8 OVER.

Betting Trend – 80% backing Over

NFL – (111) CINCINNATI at (112) CLEVELAND 1:00 ET  CBS	For Cleveland, this is their golden opportunity to end a season’s worth of frustration. They are home against division opponent , coming off a bye week to get healthier and more importantly step away from football during a 0-12 season (2-10 ATS) to come back rejuvenated and ready to earn their first win over injury-riddled in Cincinnati. The wagering public is not buying it and moved the Bengals from -5 to -6. With the Browns 0-6 ATS versus teams averaging 235 or more passing yards a game, hard to consider them, but let’s play a hunch.

Betting Trend – 85% backing Cincinnati

NFL – (115) ARIZONA at (116) MIAMI 1:00 ET  FOX (side and total)

Arizona finally got off the mat and showed some gumption in defeating Washington, while Miami played like Cleveland in having six-game winning streak stopped in decisive fashion in Baltimore. The Cardinals are still talented and alarming blowouts like the Dolphins suffered are thought to be warning signs and Miami has slipped from -2.5 to -1. The total has also come down a point to 43, with both offenses capable of taking potential points off the board with miscues. Each team has strong negative trends coming into this clash.

Betting Trend – 74% backing Arizona and 51% on Under

NFL – (117) CHICAGO at (118) DETROIT 1:00 ET  FOX

Detroit can take next step towards division title with a victory over Chicago. For really the first time this season, the Lions are expected to win with no string attached and opened as -9.5 point favorites. However, not everyone is convinced Detroit is that good, even against a Chicago team with third-stringer Matt Barkley at the controls and the home team has come down to -8. Still, this is Barkley’s first road start for the Bears and Detroit can see the finish line.

Betting Trend – 75% backing Detroit

NFL –  (129) ATLANTA at (130) LOS ANGELES 4:25 ET  FOX

Not sure if the total falling from 46 to 45 is a function of the Rams defense or offense. If Los Angeles and Jared Goff are going to have offensive success, Atlanta would to be the right opponent with 27th rated defense. Not sure if the Rams defense is not wearing down from carrying all the pressure this whole season, after permitting 75 points and 957 yards in the past two contests and having to take on the NFL’s top scoring offense in the Falcons. With Atlanta at 10-2 OVER, hard to go against that number.

Betting Trend – 65% backing Over

CFB – Dec. 31(271) WASHINGTON vs. (272) ALABAMA 3:00 ET  ESPN

We only mention this game because of importance and what happened. When the official matchup was confirmed, oddsmakers sent out Alabama as -14 point favorites over Washington. Football bettors jumped on this immediately and rolled the Crimson Tide to -16 within 90 minutes and all the way to -17 at some sportsbooks before settling back to -16 on Tuesday. Bama is being talked about as among the all-time greats based on talent and skill level, while Huskies quarterback Jake Browning has completed less than 50 percent of passes against the best three teams he’s faced.

Betting Trend – 74% backing Alabama


Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 291-279-3

Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 179-153-2

Line Movement Direction Record – 495-450-5


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