It the middle of the work week and time to review all the days biggest line moves in the NBA and college basketball. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (21-11 of late), to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
NBA – (503) SAN ANTONIO at (504) ORLANDO 7:05 ET FSSW, FSFL
Tonight wraps up the first half of San Antonio’s ‘Rodeo’ road trip. The Spurs offense has been unstable, scoring anywhere from 74 to 110 points on the trip, but they might more success in one of Mickey Mouse’s favorite spots, Orlando. There has been nothing magical about the Magic’s defense of late, allowing 114.4 PPG in their last five games, which is part of the reason for the total climbing from 204 to 206. However, the San Antonio defense has only surrendered 96.8 PPG on the trip and Orlando only tallies 97.7 PPG at home, thus, the lower score is more appealing here.
Betting Trend – 72% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
NBA – (509) PHILADELPHIA at (510) BOSTON 7:35 ET CSP, CSN-NE
With a much improved offense with or without Joel Embiid, Philadelphia is on an 11-2 OVER run. This has also meant less defense which has contributed to bigger scores for the 76ers. With Boston sixth in scoring in the Association at 108.3 PPG, those betting basketball helped shove the total from 217 to 220, before it settled at 219.5 around noon time. Though the last three meetings have all resulted in OVER’s, the highest previous total was 213.5. Initial thought was go the other way, yet have to consider the Celtics are 11-2 OVER having won eight or more of their last 10 games, with average total score 224.7.
Betting Trend – 68% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
CBB – (549) IOWA STATE at (550) KANSAS STATE 7:00 ET ESPN2
Neither of these Big 12 squads is playing very well, but basketball bettors have sided with the home team to this juncture, taking Kansas State from -2.5 to -4.5 over Iowa State. The Wildcats have some nice wins, like beating West Virginia and Baylor lately, nevertheless, they are 3-7 (4-6 ATS) in past 32 days. The Cyclones are a little better at 5-5 SU and ATS and have spun a 3-0 SU and ATS mark versus K-State recently. Nothing easy about this choice, but I will take the points with coach Bruce Weber’s club 7-16 ATS, 15 or more games into the season, vs. winning teams.
Betting Trend – 73% backing Iowa State
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Iowa State
CBB – (569) DUKE at (570) VIRGINIA 9:00 ET ESPN2
The way to beat Duke’s defense is dribble penetration and while that is not a major strength of Virginia, they should enjoy some success. The Cavaliers defense does have its moments, yet they are not as sticky as past teams and this important ACC game total has been lifted two points to 129. Though my numbers suggest a low scoring affair, I feel both offenses can take advantage of defensive weaknesses and climb into the low 130’s.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 51% to 79% – 38-38 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2017) – 80% or Higher – 17-23-1 ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2017) – 53-59-1 ATS