I had a very clear understanding of who I thought would win and cover the Super Bowl, what total to take and what props to play. After doing research for this article, I’m more confused about what to do next than Megan from “The Bachelor”.
I started by going to Sportsbook.com to get a feel what the wagering public was thinking and 52-55 percent of the quote-unquote “squares” are on Arizona to cover the spread. Based on recent history, this made sense to me taking the points, especially if the line holds at Pittsburgh -7. Over 60 percent of these same people that place bets at this book like the total to Over, this also made sense to me since the logical conclusion would be the Cardinals and Over and the Steelers and Under.
The money line action has steadily grown towards the Cardinals all week, up to 89 percent of all bets placed was on Arizona. From a value standpoint, this has merit and talking to Doug from 3Daily Winners, he believes many of the same lemmings (my term not his) that cashed on the Giants last year have returned believing the same thing could happen again.
I read where last year was supposed to be the big bonanza, with an estimated 100 million bet on the SB 42. It ended up being a little too optimistic for the perfect storm to occur with the perfect Pats and confident dog Giants, settling at 92M plus. Because of these recessionary times and the less than glamorous Cardinals in the game, this year’s number has been downsized to no more than 85 million and probably less.
Another factor of the decrease of the number is the rebirth of the local guy taking bets. Many bookies went out of business or were cut so severely because of the offshore internet sites that opened up. Once the government snuck in the bill about offshore betting being illegal, this opened up a whole new ball game for these fellas.
Most of the smart ones embraced technology and now have websites set up just like the offshore books and run very much the same way. The beauty for them now is instead of fielding phone calls or sending emails what the current lines are, they just have their “customers” login and view the lines themselves. This has also aided them in their ability to do prop bets for the Super Bowl and take in even more money, as long as they can cover the losses. These guys work less and are making more money then they ever did before. It’s sure is good the government ended up helping those in the United States keep the money here instead of letting in go abroad. (Wink)
To get a feel for what handicappers are thinking about the Big Game, I went to The Spread.com where they always have people posting Free and paid picks. Here the views of who will cover are different from the wagering public. At last count over 60 percent of the cappers were on Pittsburgh, including most of the big names in the business. Having once been in the business myself, I was surprised to see touts giving out a favorite, especially with a touchdown line. They were dead even on the total.
Next I went to every major sports website and read every article they had posted. ESPN.com tends to be more serious, while Fox Sports.com blends in more goofy stories, searching too hard it seems to have that “different angle”. The rest off the sites were somewhere in between. For all the stories on Al Gore’s information highway (You didn’t know he invented the internet and found global warming also?), there was very little I already didn’t know.
I was shocked and dumbfounded to see Brenda Warner (Kurt’s wife), remembering her when she had the spiked-hair which made her look, you know, like a switch-hitter. Now she has that blonde hair and looks sort of hot (especially compared to before). Speaking of hot, what about Big Ben’s either current or possibly former girlfriend? Google her up.
My search for newsworthy trends, angles or what I thought was different info yielded the following.
*Kurt Warner could become the first quarterback to win the Super Bowl with two different teams.
*No Super Bowl team had ever been beaten by more than 21 points twice during the regular season, Arizona was defeated on four occasions in this manner.
*The team with the most sacks has won 12 of last 13 Super Bowls and is 8-3-2 ATS.
*Losing Super Bowl teams that fail to score 21 points are astonishing 0-31 and 3-28 ATS.
*Teams in their first Super Bowl against a team with previous experience (of any kind) are 4-12 and 5-11 ATS.
*The outright winner of the Super Bowl is 34-8 ATS.
*Teams off consecutive upsets are 4-2-1 ATS in the Big Game.
*Pittsburgh is attempting to be the first team to ever have six Super Bowl trophies.
*Teams that win the turnover battle are 30-3 and 27-6 ATS.
*For total players consider the referee. Over the last three years, Terry McCauley’s games have averaged 39.3 points per game, the lowest among all NFL referees.
*Kurt Warner has gone seven years between Super Bowl games, Ben Roethlisberger is try to join Tom Brady as the only quarterback with two rings by age 26.
*Arizona allowed 426 points during the regular season; the previous worst for a Super Bowl team was 360.
*Pittsburgh is 10-0 and 8-2 ATS if they out-rushed their opponent this year and Arizona is 9-0 SU & ATS if they did so.
Made calls down to Tampa area and it resembles Steel City South. As many as 30 or more bars have been designated as Pittsburgh bars. The number for Arizona, well that would be about as many as people who saw there stock portfolio grow in 2008, none.
When I spoke to Doug (who lives in Phoenix area) he told me something I found humorous. The day after the Arizona beat Philadelphia, the different news stations in Phoenix were reporting Cardinals fans were actually going to travel to Tampa even if they didn’t have tickets. Obviously the news people there are dolts and what sounds like a few hundred at most fans from the Grand Canyon State will be outnumbered 30-1 by those in black and gold.
After all this research, my head was spinning and I felt like Paris Hilton at physics convention. (That would be stupid) Decided to go back to my original belief that Pittsburgh played the toughest schedule in the league all season, had few letdowns and for my money was the best team in football since Week 7. I just can’t shake the thought of all those horrific Cardinals losses and maybe it’s all in the past, but like their forever cheap owner Bill Bidwell (Oh do I have stories about him and his father) I find it impossible to believe they will play well enough to win.
Put me down for Steelers 31-20 and I hope I’m right.
These were the thoughts of one Red Wydley.