For the line moves, we start looking into the beginning of the bowl season. Also for today, a Bonus look at the biggest line move in the NBA today. Take a minute to review all the betting trends and our free picks (411-326 of late and now on 19-6 run) when we post them, to see what we are thinking. See you back here tomorrow.
BOWLS – New Mexico – (201) UTSA at (202) NEW MEXICO 2:00 ET ESPN
In the bowl opener, those betting football have sent the total downward from 64 to 62. Though the make-ups of each team is different from the two meetings they had in 2013 and 2014, both contests were UNDER’s by more than 20 points. New Mexico is likely to score and is 10-2 OVER this season, but will the UTSA be able to keep pace?
Betting Trend – 72% backing Over
BOWLS – Las Vegas – (203) HOUSTON vs. (204) SAN DIEGO STATE 3:30 ET ABC
With average score of Houston game approximately 60 points and San Diego State’s at 56, the total drifting from 58 to 54.5 would seem to favor the Aztecs. Yet, when breaking the teams down, San Diego State might be 10th nationally in rushing, which is their main strength, the Cougars are 3rd in the country stopping the run. Does this all lead to a defensive struggle or will Houston offense generate big plays?
Betting Trend – 78% backing Over
BOWLS – Camellia – (209) APPAL. STATE vs. (210) TOLEDO 5:30 ET ESPN
After two opening bowl totals going down, we have one on the rise. The Camellia Bowl total is up 56 to 57.5. Though Appalachian State only allowed 200 yards passing per game, the SBC had few quality quarterbacks. Against Akron and Miami-Fl, the Mountaineers allowed over 350 YPG passing and Toledo is 9th in passing yards. This is why higher score makes sense.
Betting Trend – 76% backing Over
BOWLS – New Orleans – (211) SOUTHERN MISS vs. (212) UL-LAFAYETTE 9:00 ET ESPN (side and total)
In this Deep South showdown, the money is on Southern Miss, up from -2 to -4, who is coming from a stronger conference and has more overall team speed. Again, based on line move, the Golden Eagles have the better offense and at least by the numbers a weaker defense and the total has climbed from 57 to 58.5. When these teams had a closing total in the 50’s this season, they are a combined 7-2 UNDER.
Betting Trend – 96% backing Southern Miss and 97% on Over
BOWLS – Boca Raton – (215) MEMPHIS vs. (216) WESTERN KENTUCKY 7:00 ET ESPN
Get ready for points, and lots of them according to all parties. Oddsmakers set this total at 77, which was the highest of the 41 bowl games released and the betting public took that to 79. This could well be a contest in which both teams break 40-point barrier, however, Memphis averages 56.6 PPG on the road and Western Kentucky is at 69.7 PPG. The OVER should be right, just sayin’!
Betting Trend – 98% backing Over
NBA – (703) ORLANDO at (704) ATLANTA 7:35 ET FSFL, FSSE (side and total
If you believe in oddsmaker error, this would appear to be one, at least by public perception, with the total climbing from 197.5 to 204.5, a ginormous seven points. After giving up about 100 PPG this season, Orlando has surrendered 115.7 PPG in last four outings and the Atlanta offense has been improving the past couple of contests. The Hawks have also taken flight from -6.5 to -8, with hoops bettors not convinced of the Magic at 13-4 ATS after playing four consecutive games as an underdog the last two seasons.
Betting Trend – 92% backing Atlanta and 62% on Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Orlando and Over
Public Consensus Record – 51% to 79% – 294-285-3
Public Consensus Record – 80% or Higher – 185-153-2
Line Movement Direction Record – 507-462-5