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NFL October Team Trends

 

By Marc Lawrence

 

The first month of the 2014 NFL season is now in the history books and with it we turn the page to October as the teams now begin to evolve.

 

Thanks to our all-knowing, well-oiled sports database, listed below as some of the good, bad and flat out ugly team trends in five situational categories – home, away, favorite, dog and division, compiled by various teams in games played throughout the month of October.

 

Pay close attention as ghosts and goblins from the past are suddenly knocking at the door.

 

HOME TEAMS-

 

• Keep an eye on (Good)Pittsburgh is a notoriously slow starter, but once October comes, that is when the Steelers normally start making a move. This is especially true against the spread at home where they are 29-15. Pitt has a Monday night game with Houston on Oct. 20 followed by Indianapolis visiting the Steel City.
• Keep an eye on (Bad): History is against Cincinnati in this role, but this year’s squad might be trying to rewrite the past. The Bengals are 16-27 ATS this month, thus, let’s see how they do against Carolina (10/12) and with Baltimore in a revenge spot (10/26).

 

AWAY TEAMS-

 

• Good: No matter where he’s coached, Tom Coughlin has seen his teams produce on the road and he has been a big part as to why the New York Giants are 28-14 ATS this month away. The G-Men will have back-to-back division road games at Philadelphia and Dallas starting Oct. 12th.

 

• Keep an eye on (Good): Atlanta is right behind the Giants are 27-14 ATS, but will need its defense to play better. The Falcons travel to New Jersey to face the G-Men (10/5), Baltimore (10/19), followed by a visit to London versus Detroit.

 

Carolina has been another solid away crew with a 23-14 ATS record. However, their mettle will be tested twice, at Cincinnati (10/12) and at Green Bay (10/19).

 

• Bad: One of the surprise teams of the early season has been Arizona. When the calendar turns to the second month of the season, this has been where the Cardinals have faltered with a 12-25 ATS record. Will this year’s team be different at Denver (10/5) and at Oakland (10/19)?

 

• Keep an eye on (Bad): The defending Super Bowl champions Seattle have been a sorry bunch away from the Northwest at 17-33 ATS and they have three road contests as the hunted team is at Washington, St. Louis and Carolina. Nothing easy picking up all those air miles.

 

Tampa Bay off their huge upset at Pittsburgh has their third straight roadie headed to New Orleans on Oct. 5, attempting to improve on 14-27 ATS figure.

 

Let’s call it what it has been, a rotten month for Cincinnati. The Bengals are also a miserable 19-31 ATS away from the Queen City and will see Tom Brady (10/5) and Andrew Luck (10/19) on the road.

 

The complexion of the Minnesota offense has changed dramatically in the last month, which is not a good thing with a trio of away outings to Green Bay, Buffalo and Tampa Bay. This is especially true carrying an 18-28 ATS record.

 

FAVORITES –

 

• Bad: Surprise! Here we find the Bengals again at 10-21 ATS with the Panthers and Ravens being underdogs.

 

• Keep an eye on (Bad): Kansas City is a bankroll depleting 10-18 ATS and on the last Sunday of the month will be favored over cross-state rival St. Louis in the Show Me State showdown.

 

Despite playing three road games this month, Seattle should be favored four times and are 13-23 ATS in October in this spot. Besides the aforementioned trio of away outings, they host Dallas on Oct. 12th.

 

Tampa Bay is just 15-25 ATS giving points and they might be a favorite on the 26th when Minnesota is in town.

 

DOGS –

 

• Good: The New York Giants as we mentioned will be at the Eagles and Cowboys and undoubtedly will be underdogs, a role they have excelled, at 22-10 ATS.

 

• Keep an eye on (Good): Carolina will be catching points three times this month at Cincy, at Green Bay and hosting the Seahawks, trying to better a 26-14 ATS mark. This might not be easy unless they show improvement.

 

Chicago is an underdog at Carolina on Oct. 5th and certainly will be receiving oddsmakers points at Atlanta the following week and 14 days later at New England. Will the Bears better 24-16 ATS record or do more Jay Cutler mistakes bury them?

 

• Keep an eye on (Bad): Minnesota has been a bad doggy at 13-24 ATS and will be catching points the first two contests of the month vs. the Packers and Detroit. Road games at Buffalo and Tampa Bay means just catching fewer digits.

 

San Francisco’s 11-21 ATS mark as dogs predates the Jim Harbaugh days. The Niners will however be underdogs in Denver on Oct. 19th.

 

The Buccaneers will be dogs in New Orleans (Oct.5) and home when Baltimore pays a visit, with a home game against Minnesota TBD. No matter what, Tampa Bay is 19-29 ATS in October.

 

DIVISION –

 

• Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh is solid bet here at 25-13 ATS and will be at rival Cleveland the day after the real Columbus Day.

 

The Giants and Jets are both 24-13 ATS in division and each has two confrontations in division. NY/1 travels to Philly and Big D, while NY/2 has a Thursday in New England and returns home 10 days later with Buffalo paying a visit.

 

• Bad: Cincinnati has the worst division spread record of any team in any month at 11-29 ATS. Does this place them in trouble when Baltimore is in town on Oct. 26th?

 

With how good New Orleans has been in the Drew Brees era, it is easy to forget he too has contributed to the Saints 11-23 ATS mark against the NFC South.

 

• Keep an eye on (Bad): Seattle’s recent success under Pete Carroll cannot hide a 15-26 ATS record in division. Just one occurrence happens at St. Louis on Oct. 19th.

 

You would think Jacksonville would be all over every month for playing badly. In division they are 13-22 ATS and travel to Tennessee on the second Sunday of the month.

 

Doug Upstone of VegasProInsidersDaily.com contributed to this article.

 

 

Power Ratings Start   Current Power Ratings Start   Current
ACC Big  12
Atlantic Oklahoma 127 133
Florida State 130 128 West Virgina 113 118
Clemson 123 121 Oklahoma State 119 123
Louisville 119 122 TCU 119 123
NC State 113 115 Texas 120 120
Boston College 110 115 Baylor 125 132
Wake Forest 111 107 Texas Tech 116 109
Syracuse 116 116 Kansas 109 107
Kansas State 119 119
Coastal Iowa State 113 113
Virginia Tech 119 118
Miami 118 117 Conference USA
North Carolina 119 115 East
Virginia 111 115 Marshall 121 125
Georgia Tech 115 115 Mid. Tenn. State 109 107
Duke 116 124 Western Kentucky 105 109
Pittsburgh 116 118 Florida Int 100 99
Florida Atl. 108 105
Big Ten UAB 100 105
East Old Dominion 104 104
Ohio State 124 125
Michigan State 125 126 West 
Penn State 118 123 North Texas 110 108
Michigan 122 117 Louisiana Tech 104 109
Maryland 117 120 UT- San Antonio 112 112
Indiana 115 117 Southern Miss 100 97
Rutgers 113 114 Rice 112 108
UTEP 100 105
West
Nebraska 118 124 American Athletic
Wisconsin 123 127 Tulane 108 102
Iowa 121 118 Central Florida 121 117
Minnesota 116 114 Houston 118 117
Northwestern 119 114 Cincinnati 117 118
Illinois 116 113 South Florida 106 101
Purdue 111 110 East Carolina 115 121
Connecticut 104 102
MAC Tulsa 107 100
East Temple 104 110
Ohio U. 108 104 Memphis 112 117
Massachusetts 95 94 SMU 110 98
Miami-Ohio 99 101
Kent State 103 97 PAC-12
Akron 106 104 North
Buffalo 103 99 Stanford 126 128
Bowling Green 115 108 Oregon 129 131
Washington 122 122
West California 109 113
Northern Illinois 114 112 Oregon State 119 121
Toledo 112 109 Washington State 115 114
Western Michigan 101 104
Central Michigan 108 105 South
Ball State 105 104 USC 125 125
Eastern Michigan 97 88 Arizona State 118 121
Utah 115 122
Mountain West Colorado 110 108
West Arizona 117 120
Fresno State 116 106 UCLA 127 125
Hawai’i 104 105
Nevada 107 110 SEC
San Diego State 112 110 East
San Jose State 106 101 Georgia 124 130
UNLV 106 97 South Carolina 123 122
Florida 121 122
East Tennessee 116 119
Air Force 107 106 Kentucky 112 116
Boise State 120 122 Vanderbilt 114 107
Colorado State 113 113 Missouri 122 125
New Mexico 102 98
Utah State 116 111 West
Wyoming 105 105 Alabama 129 133
LSU 125 127
Sun Belt Arkansas 116 123
Troy 102 92 Ole Miss 125 134
Texas State 102 103 Mississippi State 120 127
UL Monroe 107 107 Auburn 126 131
Arkansas State 110 108 Texas A&M 120 131
Louisiana 117 106
Georgia State 95 95 Independents
Idaho 101 98 Notre Dame 121 128
South Alabama 108 102 BYU 119 125
New Mexico State 99 98 Navy 113 112
Appalachian State 96 97 Army 103 102
Georgia Southern 96 105

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