Doug Upstone’s Free Picks and Predictions for Aug. 9-10


To my recollection, today in baseball we have the most line moves of the season. We picked three games and went with those. In the NFL, there is quite a bit of movement also and we choose three there also. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks, and predictions (85-54-3 of late, includes 29-17 run) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here next week.

MLB  – (901) ATLANTA at (902) MIAMI  7:10 ET  FSSE, FSFL (side and total)

Atlanta was mauled by Miami 9-2 Thursday to start this divisional series. Those betting baseball are not enthralled with the Braves this time either, taking them from -150 to -135. That was Atlanta’s first loss to the Marlins in seven tries and while Miami’s Caleb Smith (7-5, 3.35 ERA) can be really tough, the Atlanta is 16-10 vs. left-handed starters and they are 13-2 as a road favorite of -125 or more this season. The total also took a tumble from 8.5 to 8, but I’ll go the other way with the Fish 11-3 OVER at home after allowing two runs or less. 

Betting Trend – 80% backing Atlanta, 59% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Braves win and Over

MLB  – (903) CHIC. CUBS at (904) CINCINNATI  7:10 ET  NBCSNC, FSOH

The Cubs has a big lead at Cincy, blew it and scored seven straight times to win 12-5 over the Reds. With Trevor Bauer (9-8, 3.85) having been traded across the state, he and his new teammates were sent out as -106 favorite, in part, because he has a 0.46 ERA in his last three starts vs. Chicago. Yu Darvish (4-5, 4.36) has steadily improved for Joe Madden and you can see in his body language the confidence is coming back. And against the Reds, he’s 3-0 in six starts (team’s record 5-1) with a sharp 2.92 ERA. With this, the Cubs were flipped to -113 road faves and look for them to improve to 34-11after batting .315 or better over a 5-game span.

Betting Trend – 65% backing Chicago

Doug’s VPID Take – Chicago wins

MLB  – (905) WASHINGTON at (906) N.Y. METS  7:10 ET  MASN, SNY (side and total)

At least by reputation, a solid pitching matchup with Marcus Stroman (6-11, 3.07) opposing Stephen Strasburg (14-5, 3.72). This has helped drop the total from 8 to 7.5. At the same time, the Mets have been flipped from -108 to a +103 underdog. Stroman has been a tough-luck pitcher, with all but one start in Toronto. Nevertheless, he’s also made the one critical miscue that has cost him in close contests also. Strasburg is off a deplorable outing in Arizona and he’s prone to have two in a row, with the latter just slightly better. I’ll say there is enough offense to reach the OVER and just a small lean with the Nationals to find a way to win.

Betting Trend – 57% backing Washington, 75% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Washington and Over


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NFLX – (273) TAMPA BAY at (274) PITTSBURGH  7:30 ET  NFLN

This should be a gimme right, with Pittsburgh having slipped from -3 to -1.5 against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers certainly have the motivation in this one and the guys in my Wise Guy network are split on this conflict. Plus, Tampa Bay is 29-14 ATS in road nonconference games. If I was convinced the Bucs would win, I’d grab them, yet at just 1.5, the Steelers feel like the safer wager.

Betting Trend – 53% backing Pittsburgh

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Pittsburgh

NFLX – Saturday –  (277) CINCINNATI at (278) KANSAS CITY  8:00 ET 

Kansas City opened at -5 and has come down to -3.5 against Cincinnati. Andy Reid is a notoriously poor August coach known to worry more about preparation for the regular season than winning games now. However, in K.C. he’s won more than in Philly and in his last 10 games against conference competition, he’s 9-1 ATS. Let’s take the better squad at home.

Betting Trend – 64% backing Kansas City

Doug’s VPID Take – Kansas City covers

NFLX – Saturday –  (281) DALLAS at (282) SAN FRANCISCO  9:00 ET  NFLN

Dallas is another team dating back to its origin when Tom Landry was the head coach (Google) that never worried about game results in the preseason. With San Francisco coming off an awful year, they want to set the right tone and they have been bumped up from -3 to -4.5 over the Cowboys. With Dallas 14-28 ATS in road games and 4-13 ATS as an away underdog of 3.5 to 7 points, grabbing the Niners.

Betting Trend – 52% backing San Francisco

Doug’s VPID Take – San Francisco covers

Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 152-145-6 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher – 46-52-1ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 190-186-7 ATS


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