Doug Upstone’s Free Picks and Predictions for Aug. 8


With Week 1 of the NFL Preseason kicking off, we cover a couple of games tonight along with some baseball action that all have line moves. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks, and predictions (84-54-3 of late, includes 28-13 run) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here tomorrow.

MLB  – (963) KANSAS CITY at (964) DETROIT  7:10 ET  FSKC, FSD

Got to hand it to baseball bettors, whoever is following this contest is really a gambler. These are two of the worst clubs in baseball, yet, Detroit is up a whopping 20 cents to -165 over Kansas City. The Tigers biggest role as a favorite came on May 23rd when they were -145 at home against Miami. Just asking, how do you back a team at this price that is on 8-39 run? Kansas City is starting Jorge Lopez (1-7, 6.19 ERA), the pitcher, not the comedian (that’s George), but he still has laughable numbers. Of course, I would recommend not betting this game, but for this article and video, have to take dog purely on value.

Betting Trend – 59% backing Kansas City

Doug’s VPID Take – K.C. slightest lean ever

MLB  – (965) CLEVELAND at (966) MINNESOTA  8:10 ET  STO, FSNO

Huge four-game series in the AL Central and the money is following the total, down to 9 from 9.5. It will be Mike Clevinger (6-2, 3.07) vs. Kyle Gibson (11-4, 4.02) and while both have Over records for the season, that is not true against the team’s they are facing. Clevinger is 6-2 UNDER against the Twins and Gibson is 12-7 UNDER versus the Tribe. The clincher is this; in August, Play UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5, in a game involving two teams with a win percentage of 54% to 62%. (17-6 since 2015)

Betting Trend – 73% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under


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NFLX – (253) INDIANAPOLIS at (254) BUFFALO  7:00 ET 

It doesn’t take much to move a line in August during the NFL preseason. When word came out that Andrew Luck was going to play, the Colts flipped from +2 to -2.5 at Buffalo. Others reasons this is not such a bad bet are Indianapolis is simply a better and deeper team and the Bills are 16-30 ATS in home games.

Betting Trend – 58% backing Buffalo

Doug’s VPID Take – Indianapolis covers

NFLX – (263) JACKSONVILLE at (264) BALTIMORE  7:30 ET (side and total)

This AFC encounter opened with Baltimore at -2.5 and jumped to -5.5 thanks to coach Jim Harbaugh’s reputation, as he’s 30-14 ATS before the regular season starts. But with the announcement of how few starters will see action, the line drew back to the Ravens at -3.5. At the same time, the total plummeted from 35 to 30.5. I was thinking the Jaguars at +5.5 since they are 31-15 ATS on the road, but with not much experience at quarterback behind Nick Foles, I’ll lean with Baltimore and take the Over.

Betting Trend – 63% backing Baltimore and 52% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Baltimore and Over

Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 148-144-6 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher – 46-52-1ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 186-185-7 ATS


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