With so many day games for baseball, we have a short stack of line moves today. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks, and predictions (83-53-3 of late, includes 27-12 run) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (909) PHILADELPHIA at (910) ARIZONA 9:40 ET NBCSP, FSAZ
Thus far in this series, we have seen a couple of OVER’s. Philadelphia has played three straight OVER’s and Arizona has four in a row. That’s why it was a bit surprising to see the total dip from 9.5 to 9. The D-Backs starter Zac Gallen (1-3, 2.72 ERA) seems to be what is driving this as his ERA shows and he was 9-1 with a 1.77 ERA in 14 starts for Triple-A New Orleans in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. Philly has a 19-8 Under mark after three consecutive Over’s, which is cause for pause, but Snakes are 20-10 OVER facing LH starters and that works for me.
Betting Trend – 76% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
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MLB – (917) N.Y. YANKEES at (918) BALTIMORE 7:05 ET YES, MASN
This is not a topic we discuss for line moves and while we could, because we have such few choices today, it fits. New York is up 45 cents on the ML and as I’ve said, I don’t talk about big money favorites getting bigger. Instead, the intrigue is on the run line, where the Yankees have moved from -130 (-1.5) to -160 (1.5). On the surface this looks pretty clear cut, the Yanks should still be good. But the Orioles John Means (8-6, 3.12) is their best starter and he has good numbers and just when you think James Paxton (6-6, 4.61) looks ready to string together five or six strong starts, he gets bombed. However, the difference for the game is the bullpens. New York is 6th in pen ERA, the O’s are 29th, enough said.
Betting Trend – 77% backing New York
Doug’s VPID Take – New York covers RL
MLB – (951) KANSAS CITY at (952) BOSTON 7:10 ET FSKC, NESN
With KC starter Glenn Sparkman having an ERA over 10 in seven road starts, those betting baseball shoved the total on this encounter from 10.5 to 11. Boston’s Eduardo Rodriguez (13-5, 4.19) is the only reliable Red Sox starter, but even he has an ERA of over 5 against the Royals. With the BoSox 10-2 OVER at home when the total is 11 or higher and Rodriguez 12-2 OVER vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .260 or lower this season, the OVER is the play.
Betting Trend – 84% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 147-143-6 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher – 46-52-1ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 184-185-7 ATS