For line moves today we mix it up a little bit with hardball and some NFL preseason football. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks, and predictions (97-60-3 of late, includes 41-23 run) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here tomorrow.
MLB – (907) N.Y. METS at (908) ATLANTA 7:20 ET SNY, FSSE
Thus far in this series, we have seen an Over and a Push on totals. Despite what appears to be a good starting pitching matchup between Marcus Stroman (6-11, 3.20 ERA) and Julio Teheran (7-7, 3.35) the total has climbed from 10 to 10.5. With two teams that are in the Top 7 in Over’s in part because of weak bullpens, that is always a concern, but I’ll stick with my instincts and take the UNDER and knowing Atlanta is on a 12-4 UNDER over at home.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
MLB – (919) HOUSTON at (920) OAKLAND 10:07 ET ATTSNH, NBCSBCA
With Houston holding a nine-game lead in the loss column (that’s all the matters since everyone plays 162), this AL West encounter lacks a little drama. Nevertheless, the Astros are trying to catch the Yankees for best AL record and Oakland is fighting for the Wild Card. Baseball bettors are enthralled with the total, lifting it from 9.5 to 10. The A’s Mike Fiers has a 2.12 ERA in his last 17 starts and two of those games he pitched against the Astros in this stretch were UNDER’s. With Houston a small favorite and 17-7 UNDER on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 this season, think low.
Betting Trend – 51% backing Over
Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under
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NFLX – (401) PHILADELPHIA at (402) JACKSONVILLE 7:00 ET
When the lines came out on Monday, the total on this tilt fell like an anvil thrown from fourth story window, dropping from 38 to 34. As of today, the total dipped a bit more to 33.5. The teams combined to score just 10 points last week and neither backup quarterback situation are great. Let’s go UNDER with Philly is 16-6 UNDER after a loss by 10 or more points.
Betting Trend – 75% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Under
NFLX – (407) GREEN BAY at (408) BALTIMORE 7:30 ET
There is every reason to take Baltimore on the side thanks to coach John Harbaugh, but what about the total? The total has cratered from 40 to 36.5 with the Ravens off a shutout. Green Bay was mostly an Over squad in August football but that is less certain with the coaching change. Actually liked the Under at 40, but not thrilled about the total at the current number and will lean with the Over with someone winning 20-17.
Betting Trend – 58% backing Under
Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Over
NFLX – (409) OAKLAND at (410) ARIZONA 8:00 ET ESPN
It would be a shocker if these two inept clubs failed to combine to win 10 total games this season. For this national cable contest with each team off a victory, Arizona has slid from -3 to -1.5 over Oakland. This won’t exactly be riveting viewing but have no problem going against Da Raiders who are 10-23 ATS in road games after playing at home and 3-13 ATS away when the total is between 38.5 and 42 points.
Betting Trend – 69% backing Oakland
Doug’s VPID Take – Arizona covers
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 159-150-6 ATS
Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher – 49-55-1ATS
Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 195-199-7 ATS