Doug Upstone’s Free Picks and Predictions for Aug. 14


With so much day baseball on Wednesday, we turn our attention to night time action for line moves. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks, and predictions (95-58-3 of late, includes 39-21 run) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here tomorrow.

MLB  – (955) CHIC. CUBS at (956) PHILADELPHIA  7:05 ET  ESPN

Yesterday, the betting public took this series to a higher total and today they are reversing course and moving in the opposite direction. The total was lowered from 9 to 8.5 because of a fine pitching match between former Phillie Cole Hamels (6-3, 3.09 ERA) and current one Aaron Nola (10-3, 3.67). Chicago is pathetic on the road this year, with the offense a real issue and they that scored two or fewer runs in eight of last 11 away outings. Mix in Hamels is 18-8 UNDER when the total is 8.5 to 10 and Nola is 17-6 UNDER in the second half of the season since last year and you know where I’m headed.

Betting Trend – 56% backing Under

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under


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MLB  – (969) SEATTLE at (970) DETROIT  7:05 ET  RTNW, FSD

These are two horrible baseball teams who probably wish they could call the season now and start fresh next February. But that’s not the case. Seattle won 11-6 last night to raise their record to 13-1 against team’s be outscored by one or more RPG this season. This has helped shove the Mariners from -142 to -152 over hapless Detroit. The M’s will start Marco Gonzales (12-9, 4.25) who is having a solid year on a crappy club and he’s 7-3 against the Tigers. Detroit is so desperate for any starting pitching they signed Edwin Jackson (2-5, 9.35), who is 3-15 at home when the total is 10 to 10.5. (Team’s record) No ringing endorsement for the Mariners at this hefty price, still, the Tigers are 2-22 after allowing 10 or more runs.

Betting Trend – 94% backing Seattle

Doug’s VPID Take – Lean Seattle

MLB  – (979) ST. LOUIS at (980) KANSAS CITY  8:15 ET  FSMW, FSKC (side and total)

In this I-70 showdown, St. Louis is down 20 cents to -125 against Kansas City and the total has also fallen from 10 to 9.5. I have no issue grabbing the Cardinals who have won six straight in K.C. and are 14-4 on the road with a money line of -100 to -150 this season. Tack on starter Dakota Hudson and the Redbirds are 10-1 playing against a team with a losing record and I like the value. Let’s also side with the line movement on the total, with the Cards 13-4 UNDER vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less RPG and the Royals 19-5 UNDER vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or lower.

Betting Trend – 79% backing St. Louis, 68% on Under

Doug’s VPID Take – St. Louis wins and Under

Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 157-149-6 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher – 49-54-1ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 194-196-7 ATS


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