Doug Upstone’s Free Picks and Predictions for Aug. 13

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It’s back to basics for line moves on a Tuesday in August. Take a minute to review all the betting trends, our free picks, and predictions (91-56-3 of late, includes 35-19 run) to see what we are thinking about today. See you back here tomorrow.

MLB  – (903) CHIC. CUBS at (904) PHILADELPHIA  7:05 ET NBCSC, NBCSP

For Chicago and Philadelphia, 2019 has not gone as expected. The Cubs are at least in first place but their hold is hardly secure given their abysmal road record. And the Phillies, they are 4th in the NL East, though still within striking distance of the Wild Card. The biggest problem all year has been pitching and the lack of it and that is why the total has kept up from 9.5 to 10. Jose Quintana (10-7, 4.23 ERA) and Jason Vargas (6-6, 4.09) have been nothing special all year, but Quintana has thrown better of late. Any totals talk has to include the bullpens, but I’ll hope that does not come into play with Quintana 16-2 UNDER in road games when working on five or six days rest and Vargas 8-0 UNDER as a home underdog of +100 or higher. 

Betting Trend – 85% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Under

MLB  – (911) BALTIMORE at (912) N.Y. YANKEES  7:05 ET  MASN, YES

This AL East total is about what you want to believe. These teams are 14-3 OVER this season, 21-5 OVER the last three years at Yankee Stadium and 44-11 OVER since 2017. If you look at the starting pitchers, John Means (5-2 UNDER road record) and Domingo German (9-1 UNDER home record) you could be swayed to think the total rising from 10 to 10.5 might be a mistake. However, the history says lots of runs and both bullpens were used extensively in yesterday’s doubleheader and home plate ump Marvin Hudson is 14-7 OVER this season.

Betting Trend – 90% backing Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Play Over

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MLB  – (915) BOSTON at (916) CLEVELAND  7:10 ET  NESN, STO (side and total)

Cleveland blew another save yesterday, but got a walk-off homer to defeat Boston last night. Though Chris Sale (6-11, 4.41) is suffering through a horrific season and the Indians are scalding hot, bettors still are choosing the Red Sox, flipping them from +105 to -108. Though Sale is off his best showing of the season of eight shutout innings, is he locked in? Plus, he has an ERA over 5 in 19 starts against Cleveland. Mike Clevinger (7-2, 3.02) has been great in his last several starts, though he has an ERA over 8 in three outings vs. the BoSox. I’ll grab the Tribe and go against the total which tumbled from 9 to 8.

Betting Trend – 70% backing Cleveland, 90% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Cleveland wins and Over

MLB – (925) OAKLAND at (926) SAN FRANCISCO  9:45 ET NBCSCA, NBCSBA (side and total)

The Bay Bridge rivalry gets started with a pair on the San Fran side tonight. The Giants were released as -122 faves and have come ashore at -110, with the total climbing from 7.5 to 8. This battle has a couple of port-siders in Brett Anderson (10-7, 3.99) and Madison Bumgarner (7-7, 3.74). San Francisco is 10-4 with Mad Bum at home this season, but the Athletics are 9-3 with Anderson on the road and are 21-27 away from home otherwise. Taking Oakland. With the A’s 28-14 UNDER after scoring and allowing three runs or less, think few runs.

Betting Trend – 57% backing Oakland, 86% on Over

Doug’s VPID Take – Leans Oakland and Under

Public Consensus Record (2019) – 51% to 79% – 157-147-6 ATS

Public Consensus Record (2019) – 80% or Higher – 47-52-1ATS

Line Movement Direction Record (2019) – 192-192-7 ATS

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